Thread by @ElbridgeColby

Quite extraordinary @POTUS speech #MSC2021. V liberal hawk. 🌍view basically ideological - systemic clash b/democs vs. authoritarians, *both* 🇨🇳&🇷🇺. Strategy based on big big bet that democs will align, yet signal is burden-sharing talk is hortatory. 1/

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

Don't take it from me. Here's @POTUS: "We are in a fundamental debate about the future & direction of our world. We’re at an inflection point b/ those who argue that autocracy is the best way forward & those who understand that democracy is essential..." 2/

"I believe that — every ounce of my being — that democracy will and must prevail. We must demonstrate that democracies can still deliver for our people in this changed world. That, in my view, is our galvanizing mission. 3/

Closing point: "So let’s get together and demonstrate to our great, great grandchildren, when they read about us, that democracy — democracy — democracy functions and works, and together, there is nothing we can’t do. So let’s get working." He repeated "democracy" 3 times. 4/

Stated in "a long-term strategic competition with China" but also: "The challenges with Russia may be different than the ones with China, but they’re just as real." So simultaneous pretty competitive if not adversarial view of *both* 🇨🇳&🇷🇺. 5/

That's a lot! To fill the gap: "I hope our fellow democracies are going to join us in this vital work..." Especially "the cornerstone," the partnership w/Europe. So that's a v clear ask that Europe *fully* join in aligning w/US vis a vis authoritarian states. 6/

Logic is based on "shared values...vision of future" since alliances "are not transactional." Clearly *not* relying on any pressure. To "erase any lingering doubt" @POTUS stated wld halt any caps on troops/ withdrawals from FRG & lauded thanked Europe for + defense efforts. 7/

& to boot signaled caution/slowdown re Afgh drawdown: "We remain committed to ensuring that Afghanistan never again provides a base for terrorist attacks against the United States and our partners and our interests." 8/

2 *really* striking things about this speech. 1) Confidence - almost sanguinity - about ability to deal w/China challenge et al. "[T]ogether, there is nothing we can’t do." Has a 1990s feel where it's really a matter of will, above all for US. Yet: bbc.com/news/world-asi…. 9/

FWIW, I believe US can achieve its reasonable aims in 🌍 despite China's rise, but it's a huge, huge deal & challenge. @POTUS speech has the sense of a world where US is still indisputably the hyperpower. It's just a matter of us getting our house in order. 10/

2) Deep faith in democracies willingness to align in v meaningful ways. @POTUS clearly *really* believes this. Color me skeptical that Europe will meet this standard. But I guess we'll see! 11/