So the $15 wage is in Biden’s Covid relief bill headed to the House floor next week. But he’s predicting it won’t survive. Why? He says it’ll likely get stripped out in the Senate under the “Byrd rule” that limits reconciliation to budget changes, i.e. spending and taxes.
Bernie Sanders, the Budget Committee chairman, and Chuck Schumer disagree. They’re crafting a case to the parliamentarian that it should be allowed. But there’s a decent chance she disagrees. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
So what happens next?
A bunch of progressives are suggesting an end-run: Have the VP preside over the Senate and rule the wage hike compliant, defying the parliamentarian. I’ve asked a number of experts and, yes, she can legally do that. And it’d take 60 votes to override her. But there are caveats!
Namely, it’s effectively going nuclear for the reconciliation process. If this majority can overrule the nonpartisan referee on what’s allowed, the next won’t be constrained. It sets a new precedent that anything goes in reconciliation if the party in power supports it.
Ted Cruz pushed this idea back in ‘17 to allow a broader Obamacare repeal when Republicans were agonizing over the Byrd rule. Mitch McConnell never entertained it. And John McCain put them out of their misery by killing the “skinny” repeal vehicle.
One expert told me a VP has never overruled the parl. on the Byrd rule in its 30-year history. Still, it can be done. But Biden, who served 36 years in the chamber, is a Senate institutionalist in his bones. He favors the filibuster and appears unlikely to support this.
All that said, Biden’s inclusion of the $15 wage in his Covid bill has raised expectations among a number of his supporters, who will be annoyed if it falls prey to a procedural issue few outside DC care about. An early test of Biden-progressive relations. <fin>
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NEW: Democrats introduce a sweeping bill to remake the US immigration system, backed by Joe Biden. It includes a path to citizenship for "Dreamers" and others here illegally, eliminates hurdles for legal immigration and replaces "alien" with "noncitizen."
On immigration, Speaker Pelosi says Democrats have discussed a piecemeal approach as well as potentially using reconciliation to bypass a Senate filibuster.
"How it happens through the legislative process remains to be seen. But it is a priority."
This is significant. The House is on track to pass a $15 wage in the Covid bill. If it survives the Byrd rule then a federal minimum wage hike becomes likely. Senate Democrats aren’t all on board with $15/hour but they unanimously want to raise the current floor of $7.25/hour.
And in that case, which Democrat is going to want to stand up and wage a fight against $15, which according to polls has 2-to-1 public support and 80-85% support w/Dem voters?
For those citing Manchin and Sinema—this is where the process matters. If the parliamentarian rules a minimum wage is noncompliant, it’s probably over. Those two credibly say they won’t overrule her. But if it complies, their only leverage is to shoot down the entire Covid bill.
NEW: The Republican civil war ended today. Donald Trump won.
The party’s decision to acquit him on charges of inciting the 1/6 siege on the Capitol frees him to run for president again and cements his status as kingmaker for years to come.
The vote by 43 of 50 Republicans to acquit Trump shows the deep and enduring hesitation in the party to disown Trumpism, however they justify it. Senators know their voters care about how they vote, not the caveats they later add in a speech or statement.
The Senate is voting now on "whether or not it shall be in order to consider and debate under the impeachment rules any motion to subpoena witnesses and or documents."
Republicans voting YES on calling witnesses in this Trump trial: Collins, Murkowski, Romney, Sasse.
(Vote not final yet.)
! Lindsey Graham just changed his vote to YES on calling witnesses in the Trump trial.