Thread by @sahilkapur

Minimum wage thread 👇

(warning: arcane Senate stuff herein)

So the $15 wage is in Biden’s Covid relief bill headed to the House floor next week. But he’s predicting it won’t survive. Why? He says it’ll likely get stripped out in the Senate under the “Byrd rule” that limits reconciliation to budget changes, i.e. spending and taxes.

Bernie Sanders, the Budget Committee chairman, and Chuck Schumer disagree. They’re crafting a case to the parliamentarian that it should be allowed. But there’s a decent chance she disagrees. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

So what happens next?

A bunch of progressives are suggesting an end-run: Have the VP preside over the Senate and rule the wage hike compliant, defying the parliamentarian. I’ve asked a number of experts and, yes, she can legally do that. And it’d take 60 votes to override her. But there are caveats!

Namely, it’s effectively going nuclear for the reconciliation process. If this majority can overrule the nonpartisan referee on what’s allowed, the next won’t be constrained. It sets a new precedent that anything goes in reconciliation if the party in power supports it.

Ted Cruz pushed this idea back in ‘17 to allow a broader Obamacare repeal when Republicans were agonizing over the Byrd rule. Mitch McConnell never entertained it. And John McCain put them out of their misery by killing the “skinny” repeal vehicle.

One expert told me a VP has never overruled the parl. on the Byrd rule in its 30-year history. Still, it can be done. But Biden, who served 36 years in the chamber, is a Senate institutionalist in his bones. He favors the filibuster and appears unlikely to support this.

All that said, Biden’s inclusion of the $15 wage in his Covid bill has raised expectations among a number of his supporters, who will be annoyed if it falls prey to a procedural issue few outside DC care about. An early test of Biden-progressive relations. <fin>