How is the French anti-Covid vaccination programme going? Better overall but there are still many failings and mysteries. By last Wednesday France had received, according to official figures, 570,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine but had used 67,256 of them – 11.7%. 1/10
Olivier Véran, health minister, said 12 days ago, that France would offer AZ to all health/care workers/ambulance crews/ home helps by next Monday. Jean Castex, PM, said 1,000,000 AZ jabs would be given this month.
After just over 2 weeks, Fr. had reached… 67,000 AZ jabs. 2/10
What’s going on? Anecdotal evidence suggests that there is considerable resistance to AZ in France, even among health workers, following reports of unpleasant after-effects and poor performance against some Covid variants. Officially, no info is forthcoming. 3/10
Better news. The rest of the vax programme, using Pfizer and Moderna, continues to accelerate. As of last night, 3,668,354 shots had been given – incl. just over 2,000,000 in the first 19 days of Feb. This is well ahead of the 1,600,000 given in 35 days up to end Jan. BUT… 4/10
France will miss its target of 4,000,000 jabs this month – largely because of the poor AZ rollout. A daily jab rate of over 200,000 is now required. On Thurs Fr hit a record 184,000 shots – but weekend performance is still lamentable. Last Sat AND Sun 63,384 jabs were given 5/10
Other good news - 2nd injections are forging ahead. As of last night, 1,132,918 had been given. Around 77% of care home residents have had 1 shot; maybe 40% have had both. This should start to reduce mortality rates. One in 3 C|19 deaths in Fr. have been in care homes. 6/10
France has now “fully vaccinated” 2x as many people as Britain but Britain has first-jabbed more than 6x as many people as France. (Fr 2.5m. UK over 16m).
Which approach is better? Two expert reports this week backed delaying 2nd doses to give rapid defence to more people. 7/10
Looking ahead….France has to speed up more if it is to vaccinate, even with one jab, all willing adults by 22 September. The number of Fr people now willing to be vaccinated, less than 50% last year, has reached 61%. But will they accept the AZ vaccine? 8/10
The govt announced this week that AZ doses will be available to all over-50’s in GP surgeries, pharmacies by middle of next month. On verra.
What of us forgotten 65-75 yr olds? Our turn should, in theory, start late March/early April if the plus-75’s can be done by then. 9/10
To fulfil its promise of a jab for all willing adults by 22 Sept, France must ( 61% out of 53m people = 32.3m) deliver 30,000,000 1st jabs in 215 days. This is circa 139,000 a day. To vaccinate fully would take circa 286,000 a day.
Doable? Only if France works weekends 10/10

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More from @john_lichfield

13 Feb
French vaccines – booster thread.
In my last big French vax thread 2 weeks ago, I asked why the French programme was so slow. I’m pleased to say things have improved (a little) since then. 1/10
Here is an interesting fact. France, as of yesterday, has given more 2nd injections than Britain – 617,715 Fr to 570,094 UK. In other words France (though rightly criticised) has now fully vaccinated more people against Covid than Britain (which has been rightly praised). 2/10
This is explained, of course, by the fact that the UK is delaying all 2nd jabs for up to 12 weeks. In terms of first injections, the UK (with same population but started 3 weeks earlier) has vaxxed over 14m people. France now stands at 2.83m. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
11 Feb
French Covid thread. Depending on your viewpoint, the figures for the last week are “encouraging” (the government) or “misleadingly stable” (epidemiologists). Average daily cases and deaths fell for the first time in many weeks. But the “UK variant” continues to spread fast. 1/12
Ministers say the stats justify Prsdt Macron’s gamble 2 weeks ago in refusing a 3rd Fr. lockdown. Epidemiologists say the faster-moving UK and other variants will soon dominate – and cases/deaths will explode. The mutations are now 39% of cases in Paris area/ 21% nationwide. 2/12
The government admits that lockdown may still be necessary but they hope to avoid one. If it does happen - in March say - they believe Macron will given credit for preserving limited freedoms for as long as possible rather than blamed for risking lives. Maybe. Maybe not. 3/12
Read 13 tweets
5 Feb
New French vaccine thread…
The French programme is speeding up. Hooray. Without admitting they were ever slow, the French government says it can go faster. PM Jean Castex announced last night circa 1.5m extra injections this month – bringing the total to 4m. 1/16
The stats remain opaque but the extra jabs seem to involve a/ 500,000 new first shots for the over-75’s using Pfizer/Moderna doses and b/ 1,000,000 Astra-Zeneca shots which will be offered to health professional of all ages from tomorrow. 2/16
I have received a detailed reply from the health ministry to my questions on the pace of the French programme (which used just over half of the doses it had received at the end of Jan.). Libération newspaper carried a similar response. See below. 3/16
liberation.fr/checknews/la-f…
Read 16 tweets
4 Feb
France is to accelerate its vaccination programme with an extra 1.5m first jabs this months thanks to the arrival of the easier-to-use AstraZeneca vaccine, the PM Jean Castex just announced.
The AZ vaccine will allow France to complete 4m first jabs by end of Feb, instead of the existing target of 2.5m he told a press conference. The AZ vaccine is only approved for under-65's in Fr. It will therefore be offered to care/health workers and under-65s with health issues.
France will also open up 500,000 new appointments for over-75's this month and 1,200,00 extra slots next month (with more slots possible later) using Pfizer/ Moderna vaccines. This is a response to criticism in certain quarters (ie not just me) that Fr vax prog is too ponderous.
Read 10 tweets
4 Feb
Weekly French Covid thread. No 3rd lockdown after all. Not yet anyway. President Macron took a big gamble last Friday and decided that French opinion wasn’t ready for Confinement 3 and epidemic stats didn’t justify one.
So far, most stats are still on Macron’s side.
BUT… 1/8
The head of the Paris hospital medical committee, Prof Rémi Salomon, warned yesterday that the faster-moving UK variant of Covid-19 was now 15-20% of all cases in the Paris area - up from 6% a month ago. He said the pandemic seemed certain to accelerate in the days ahead. 2/8
As things stand, the main virus numbers that I follow in this thread are fairly stable. The average number of cases each day has scarcely increased in 7 days - from 20,248 to 20,614. Daily deaths are up from 400.5 to 448.4. Intensive care occupation is up from 3,111 to 3,277
3/8
Read 8 tweets
2 Feb
Hmm. Pres Macron told TF1 tonight that France would have “offered a vaccine" to all adults who wanted one before the end of summer. He denied French vax prog was falling behind. But France injected only 45,000 people yesterday. What’s going on? 1/5
lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/mac…
First Macron’s promise was carefully worded. He didn’t say that France would vaccinate all willing bodies (two jabs needed) before the end of the summer. He said France would offer (“proposer”) them a vaccine (which might mean only a first jab). 2/5
In fact both are possible if France starts jabbing faster. Many adult will refuse. According to a recent poll only 56% are willing (ie 29,000,000 French adults). Two jabs for all would require 58,000,000 injections- or 276,000 a day by end Aug. One jab - 138,000 a day. 3/5
Read 6 tweets

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