Sweden 🇸🇪 strategy success??? Compared to its Scandinavian neighbors...

...No! Sweden has a 12% excess mortality above past years, while all its neighbors have none.

Sweden’s unscientific natural infection herd strategy has been an epic fail. #COVID19

github.com/dkobak/excess-… Image
2) Just how bad is Sweden’s excess mortality last year? An epic 100 year excess mortality high! See thread 🧵 on the data...
3) Chasing natural infection herd was part of Sweden’s strategy from the beginning. And they told themselves sweet little lies from the beginning. Here it is a little annotated history timeline...
4) It tools Swedish leaders almost a whole year before they partially admitted failure. Too little too late sometimes. But Anders Tegnell, despite his downplaying, still remains their state epidemiologist.
5) 25 leading Swedish scientists:

➡️”🇸🇪 hoped herd immunity would curb #COVID19. Don't do what we did.”

➡️ “🇸🇪 approach to COVID has led to death, grief and suffering. The only example we're setting is how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease” amp.usatoday.com/amp/5472100002
6) So did the Swedish state epidemiologist Tegnell follow the science? No he didn’t. He ignored countless Swedish experts.

Just because someone is a scientist doesn’t mean all their decisions are scientifically supported by all the evidence or by majority agreement. That’s key.
7) aside from political pressures, Sometimes some scientists are slow to uptake data, some are slow to believe the data, some are slow to take action on data, some are in denial / refuse to accept opposing data that contradict their own viewpoints. These all can happen.
8) We should all trust the science, but sometimes science evolves, and sometimes some scientists evolve slowly. This is why replication in science is key. And why big randomized trials or big systematic reviews are key. Small studies can sometimes differ. Verification is key.
9) But there are many who lack understanding on critical nature of the precautionary principle... they refuse to acknowledge or accept the truth of asymptomatic transmission, Reinfection, airborne virus transmission, or dangers of natural herd—until too late & pandemic worsened.
10) but during that intervening time of “debate”, this pandemic has magnified a lot of bullying, pulling rank, cancel culture targeted harassment against the opposite side, and spreading misinformation on someone in efforts to discredit or silence their opponents. All very sad.
11) and sometimes there is even gaslighting that people who send DMs to debate privately are “harassing” whenever it’s fair scientific debate. It’s all be very frustrating to watch. And I’ve seen many who emphasized airborne transmission get attacked by other non-aerosol experts.
12) But most of all, lack of focus on precautionary principle (I.e. “what if this is true & worsens pandemic if we don’t act now”) during debates have cost lives.

"Be fast, have no regrets."

"the greatest error is not to move"

"speed trumps perfection"
13) That’s why @DrMikeRyan’s speech above is so excellent:

“Be fast. Have no regrets. You must be the first mover. The virus will always get you if you don’t move quickly.... If you need to be right before you make a move, you will never win”.
14) Those who failed to heed the precautionary principle & dismissed risks shoulder some blame. Lay public, when they see scientists argue and unprofessionally behave towards one another, they gets confused—and then critical airborne precaution message is lost.
15) This is why it’s so critical to be not only professional & not resort to mudslinging, but also engage to heed the *precautionary principle* in times of uncertainty during a pandemic. Take the precaution, assume the extra risk, remove if disproven—but try save lives first! 🙏
16) p.s. for all the talk about trade off vs economic gain some push, did Sweden 🇸🇪 gain more economically than its neighbors? No! Image
17) Also, the exodus of ICU nursing staff in Sweden due to the crushing epidemic there was not seen by its neighbors. Sweden 🇸🇪 suffered a lot because of its own irresponsible leaders.
18) P.s. I’m no “CCP puppet” as pro-Swedish herd advocates call me. The top Scandinavian figure by @VanGennepD, while data by @hippopedoid & @ArielKarlinsky. Their full excess death methods are published online and available for free download on GitHub.

But sure, I’m a “puppet”
19) Here is another colorful way to visualize excess deaths in Europe and other countries. Sweden stands above all its Scandinavian neighbors again.
20) For those who solely rely on natural infection herd, like Scott Atlas or Swedish infection herd approach, let 🇧🇷’s Manaus outbreak be a lesson. They thought Manaus had to be at herd—but then #P1 escape variant showed up. This is why we need #ZeroCovid. bmj.com/content/372/bm… Image
21) I’m just going to leave this here. Video by @TJRyan_77

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More from @DrEricDing

6 Mar
⚠️VERY WORRIED FOR FLORIDA/US—More contagious #B117 is rising quickly, & exponentially replacing the old dying #SARSCoV2 common strain. B117 affects kids, & 64% more severe. B117 now over 40%—dominant in days. A new surge is coming. Florida inaction= Florida ➡️ US surge. #COVID19 Image
2) Been watching this B117 situation for 2 months. We already saw very worrisome signs in Miami Dade this week.
3) CDC director was warning about US surge looming because of #B117 too.
Read 11 tweets
6 Mar
HORRIFYING #COVID19 death curve in one of wealthiest cities in Brazil— Porto Alegre is capital of Rio Grande do Sul— with many top-notch hospitals with better rating than most US🏥. And their health system still collapsed under #P1.

Imagine now rest of 🇧🇷.

(HT @alexaguiarpoa) Image
2) No need to imagine.. here is what is now going on. 17 capital cities now at 100% icu capacity. Image
3) Brazil has been now inundated by #P1 which now dominates #COVID19 in the country. It is possibly the most infectious variant seen to date.
Read 4 tweets
6 Mar
CATACLYSMIC—Hospitals at 100% ICU capacity in 17 cities in Brazil.

“They are very traumatized."

“Very serious”

Brazil 🇧🇷 hits a daily record for #COVID19 deaths as hospitals verge on near collapse under new wave, as more contagious #P1 variant spreads.
2) I cannot emphasize enough how horrible the situation is in Brazil. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3) The situation is so dire in Brazil now. And the #P1 variant may just be the most contagion variant seen to date. See thread 🧵
Read 4 tweets
5 Mar
📍STARK WARNING—“Whatever #SARSCoV2 variants summit that peak could be a considerably bigger problem than any variants that we know”—with “any combinations of increased transmissibility, altered virulence and/or ⬆️ capacity to escape population immunity.”
2) “The emergence & rapid rise in prevalence of three independent #SARSCoV2 '501Y lineages' #B117 #B1351 #P1 has prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionarily capacity to adapt to both rising population immunity and public health interventions such as vaccines & distancing.”
3) “Viruses giving rise to 501Y lineages have, presumably under intense natural selection following a shift in host environment, independently acquired multiple unique & convergent mutations. As a consequence all have gained properties that likely complicate control of #COVID19.”
Read 6 tweets
5 Mar
💡EFFECTIVE—Single-dose Oxford–AstraZeneca #COVID19 vaccine followed by a 12-week booster. Vaccine efficacy was significantly higher at 81·3% after two standard doses given at an interval of >=12 weeks, versus 55·1% when doses <6 weeks apart. Good news! 🧵
2) “findings were supported by immunogenicity studies done in participants who were younger than 55 years, showing anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG antibody responses more than two-fold higher in those who had a dose interval of >=12 weeks than in those who had an interval of <6 weeks”
3) “Notably, efficacy against any nucleic acid amplification test-positive cases, including symptomatic and asymptomatic or unknown cases, was 63·9% (46·0 to 75·9) after a single standard dose, suggesting the possibility of reducing viral transmission.”
Read 7 tweets
5 Mar
JAPAN 🇯🇵 WARNS OF POTENTIAL “FOURTH WAVE”—Over 230 cases of highly infectious variant strains of the novel coronavirus have been confirmed in in Japan. Experts warning of a potential "fourth wave" should they continue to spread across the country. #COVID19
2) Here is one of the new Japan outbreaks of #B117 —linked to a school for kids under 10. This matches a lot of other trends on elevated B117 risk in kids.
3) Japan’s warning on #B117 potentially triggering another surge also matches what CDC director warns about B117 and a new surge in US too. See 🧵
Read 7 tweets

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