Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #P1

Most recents (24)

⚠️Don’t ignore—

"Ignoring variants today, suggesting they aren't important, leads us to ignore variants tomorrow.

Ignoring the variants of tomorrow is potentially a f***ing big mistake!"

…says Dr. @michaelmina_lab,
Harvard immunologist & epidemiologist
#COVID19 #vaccinate #P1 ImageImage
2) “variants are extremely concerning. Most data at this point shows anywhere from a 10-fold to a 30-fold reduction in nAb against the variants”
3) “When we mix these variants with elderly immune systems that will wane - we will see new cases emerge amongst fully vaccinated vulnerable in our communities this year. it will be bad in this fall and it will lead to outbreaks and deaths again.” 🔥
Read 5 tweets
📍VARIANT TAILORED VACCINE—Moderna announced that a variant-tailored 3rd dose of the NIH-Moderna vaccine greatly boosted antibody levels in volunteers in a new study. The updated vaccine, tailored against the #B1351 variant from 🇿🇦, worked best.🧵 #COVID19… Image
2) Earlier research, done in petri dishes, suggested the B.1.351 variant was able to partially reduce the effectiveness of leading vaccines, including from Pfizer and Moderna.…
3) How much did the #B1351 variant decrease neutralization from Pfizer and Moderna vaccines? A lot. 20-30x fold drop for Moderna. And 30-40x fold drop for Pfizer - akin to a completely unrelated distant bat coronavirus. While not equal to efficacy, this is a big drop. See 🧵
Read 9 tweets
Sobering—“It is already clear that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily & vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon.”

➡️ Vaccine hesitancy hurts public health.🧵 #COVID19…
2) I don’t like this— “daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever.”
3) “rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in US for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.”

➡️I don’t like waving this surrender flag.
Read 20 tweets
What is the fastest growing variant in the US currently? Not #B117 anymore (now #2)—it’s actually the #P1 variant from Brazil 🇧🇷.

So @NYCHealthCommr Dr @davechokshi is indeed correct when he rightfully pointed out #P1 is “growing” in New York City. #COVID19

(Figure from @trvrb)
2) In these states, #P1 variant is rising as fast or faster than even #B117. Look at Illinois especially, #P1 is now over 30% of all cases suddenly.

Most of these places as well vaccinated as NYC. Yet #P1 still growing.
3) Why so I worry about the #P1 variant so much? Because this is the estimated approximate efficacy against transmission by the major vaccines, according to @AliHMokdad of the renowned @IHME_UW epidemiology institute.

Zoom in—right column.
Read 8 tweets
Ummmm… #P1 🇧🇷 variant’s case fraction % in New York City just rose over 30% in just one week. Any others growing? Not really—#B117 (while more common) only rose tiny bit, and the NY variant #B1526 is mostly flat.

I’ve seen this movie before—in BC🇨🇦—it didn’t end well. #COVID19
2) that said, NYC is more heavily vaccinated than BC 🇨🇦. Let’s hope it’s enough to hold back any #P1 surge. I’m just trying to spot signals. And a 30% relative jump is notable in just a week.
3) BC’s #P1 started slow, but then it became a huge problematic of an outbreak.
Read 6 tweets
Estamos en #cuarentena pero c/movilidad -20% de la normal La positividad sigue entre 8,5-10% y #UCI llenas El jueves, se levanta la cuarentena p/10 comunas RM aunque parece que ya se levantó hoy de la cantidad de autos. Mi pregunta ¿cl es el plan p/disminuir los contagios? 1/8
1) sabemos que las #cuarentenas dinámicas no funcionan y sólo alargan la agonía, ¿xke insistir? 2/8
2) sabemos que abrir oficinas y escuelas aumenta hasta 20 veces el riesgo de contagio sg los experimentos de los especialistas 3/8…
Read 9 tweets
Brazil’s largest health nonprofit warns—pandemic is getting younger in Brazil. @fiocruz_en says 🇧🇷 is facing health system collapse & the #P1 pandemic is now affecting younger age groups: 30 to 39 years old, 40 to 49, and 50 to 59 more than ever. #COVID19…
2) “The Bulletin points to the fact that the pandemic is gaining a new face in Brazil: it is now rejuvenated. The study shows there has been a significant increase in the rate of Covid-19 cases in the age groups 30-39, 40-49, and 50-59, as observed in the first months of 2021.
3) “the concentration of cases is shifting to younger ages.
The researchers emphasize that since the beginning of the second wave, on the 46th epidemiological week (between 8 to 14 November 2020), health services have been seeing more young people with symptoms.
Read 9 tweets
1 million #COVID19 **deaths** projected in India 🇮🇳 by August 2021. The model even assumes vaccines to will bring it under control by May 17th (peak deaths).

God help us. God help India.

(Projections by the world renowned epidemiology center @IHME_UW)…
2) the worse case is 1.04 (95% CI 840k-1.25 mil) by August 1st.

Even with universal masks and vaccine rollout, it will likely be 878k (95% CI: 728k-1.07 mil).
3) How many projected global #COVID19 deaths? 5 million or so by August 2021.
Read 8 tweets
First reinfection death in Brazil. The 39 year old male was first infected with #P1 variant. Then 3 months later, infected with other 🇧🇷-origin #P2 variant. Patient died 8 days after reinfection found, in wealthiest/healthiest state of Rio Grande do Sul.🧵…
2) The sad thing was, both his brother and father had #COVID19 too. “He also visited his father at the hospital in a room shared with other COVID-19 diagnosed patients”.
3) “The second infection evolved with complications, and the patient was removed to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and intubated due to severe loss of pulmonary capacity. The patient unfortunately died on March 19th, 2021.”
Read 4 tweets
Nous sommes interpellé⋅e⋅s à propos de la #virulence plus élevée du #variant de #SARSCoV2 B.1.1.7 (ou #voc).

Certain⋅e⋅s y voient des études "contradictoires".

Tour d’horizon rapide avec deux études qui nous semblent solides et deux études, disons... «médiatiques».

La première étude du @bmj_latest a suivi plus de 54.000 patients et analysé la mortalité après 28 jours.

L’infection par B.1.1.7 multiplierait le risque de décès par 1,32 à 2,04 par rapport à l'infection par un virus d'une autre lignée.…

La seconde étude publiée dans @nature analyse plus de 2 millions de tests PCR et plus de 17.000 décès avec des outils statistiques pointus.

Elle conclue que l’infection par B.1.1.7 augmente le risque de décès de 39 à 72 %.…

Read 12 tweets
Irgendwie ein Deja Vu. Ich habe viele Mutationen ignorieren können. #B117 damals nicht, weil Zahlen und Rhythmus seltsam waren. #P1 aus Brasilien schon, weil da jetzt der Winter beginnt. Die Regenzeit in Indien beginnt aber erst im Juni.

Also gut... was sagen die Zahlen? (1/10)
Die offiziellen Sequenzierungen in Deutschland finden fast nicht: Bspw. 2 der 7.000 Sequenzierungen in Baden-Württemberg.

Woanders hatte ich eine Gesamtzahl von 39 gelesen. Das ist auch fast nichts. (2/10)
Der zeitliche Verlauf zeigt: Keine Auffälligkeit in der Verteilung. Aber das ist bei einer stochastisch agierenden Infektion bei niedrigen Inzidenzen häufig so (overdispersion). (3/10)
Read 10 tweets
Szenarien - THREAD über die Entscheidungssituationen jetzt, im Juni und im August.

Diskussionsgrundlage. Kritisiert gerne :)

So stellte sich die Lage für uns im Dezember dar:

#einkerzen @GrueneZonen
Da heißt schon im Dezember war klar, dass unsere Maßnahmen angepasst werden müssen.

Infektiöser & Tödlicher - das macht was mit der Gesellschaft.

Jetzt wird immer wahrscheinlicher, dass eine neue Variante bereits auf dem Weg ist. Es könnte #P1 sein, aber auch #B1617.

Wäre ich die Regierung: Ich würde Vorkehrungen treffen.

Read 10 tweets
Yup—“Canada’s #COVID19 travel restrictions are an inept, deadly failure”

There is a reason #P1 found Canada 🇨🇦 to easily infiltrate. And good reason 30,000 truck drivers cross the US-Canada border every single day without restrictions. Poor leadership.…
2) Just how lackadaisical is Canada 🇨🇦? This lax.
Read 9 tweets
CONFIRMED—the very infectious #P1 variant is cause of @Canucks outbreak, team’s general manager confirmed. He also said P1 variant is why its hockey players were hit harder than other NHL—the virus “buckled” & sickened many of the players #COVID19. 🧵…
2) “What was different with our situation is with the regular COVID it seemed that after 10 days players were ready to get back on the ice and start working out and performing," he said. "But we had players that when they did that, they still had symptoms."
3) Benning said the virus "buckled" some of the players, and that three or four regulars likely won't be ready when games resume.

Head coach Travis Green, who also contracted COVID-19, has yet to return to practices.
Read 13 tweets
📍Huge—Latin America’s main Sinovac (CoronaVac) vaccine is 67% effective in preventing #COVID19 infection, says 10.5 million-person real-world study in Chile. It is also 85% effective in preventing hospitalization, 89% for ICU, 80% to prevent any deaths.🧵…
2) CoronaVac has now seen efficacy results ranging from 50% to 83% depending on the country and timing. It’s quite varying. Overall still good. Though one study puts asymptomatic efficacy at ~35%.
3) Here I walk thru CoronaVac in detail and other studies. I talk about this vaccine a lot because it is the workhorse for Latin America and parts of the Middle East and SE Asia. And it is the main vaccine wall against #P1 in Brazil.
Read 3 tweets
May end 2020, I made a video explaining the root cause of the problems associated with #COVID19 , why it became a pandemic but #SARS and #MERS couldn't and why #lockdown was an essential evil to stop the spread.
When I showed this video to a few friends of mine, some had an opinion that #COVID19 is blown out of proportion as:
1. Deaths are concentrated mainly for 70+ age group(90% of the deaths)
2. Death rate for <50Y is even less than 0.5%
3. Vaccines would be available soon
When I expressed my concerns about potential mutations which could
1. increase the death rate (Now : #B117)
2. can escape immunities (Now : #B1351 and #P1)
3. kill younger people (Now : #P1)
I was called pessimist and -ve thinker
Read 7 tweets
At a school board meeting in Michigan, with worst US #COVID19 rate, maskless parents protests at a school meeting to demand no mask reqs.

Meanwhile, BC🇨🇦 leaders refuse to have mask rules for K-3rd grade students either—& now has the worst #P1 outbreak.
2) Meanwhile just over the Michigan border to Ontario... a humanitarian crisis is looming.
3) The new theory is that Michigan surge is due to Ontario. “Where do we have big surges? We have big surges in Michigan & in Minnesota, and also kind of around Buffalo, New York State. Alright, so what (do) those 3 have in common? They all touch Ontario”…
Read 9 tweets
INTUBATION WITHOUT SEDATIVES—Hospitals in Rio has run out of intubation sedatives. Patients now get intubated with diluted or no sedatives at all—being mechanically tied to their beds wide awake as they get tubed. ICU doctors admit it is form of “torture”.…
2) TRANSLATED: A nurse at the Albert Schweitzer Municipal Hospital in Realengo, in Rio's West Zone, says that patients with the most severe form of the disease are intubated, wokenand tied to beds due to the absence of medications.
3) Without the medication, the teams unfold looking for alternatives.
According to intensivist physicians, mechanical restraint can be used, but the patient needs to be medicated with at least a mild sedation.
Read 17 tweets
PAY ATTENTION TO BC🇨🇦—BC now reports “the highest age-specific incidence” in many ages. Teenage age 15-19 cases ⬆️84% in last 3 weeks; 20-29 ⬆️76%; Age 30-39 ⬆️83%. Positivity in ages 10-19 ⬆️~50%. Young adults also carry the most #B117 & #P1 & #B1351. 🧵…
2) Isn’t this a pretty chart? Tell us almost nothing. From out of 10 pages of charts and tables, **zero** figures or tables on the 3 major variants.

Wait til we dig into those number. #bcpoli
3) In the abstract, barely any mention of the 3 key variants of concern... except for this blurb with ZERO context whatsoever...

...until the VERY last paragraph of the 10 page report. #bcpoli
Read 20 tweets
Whoa—🇧🇷 #P1 is now also surging in UK, despite #B117 (already 40-60% faster than old strain) being the 95-99% dominant variant. Newest data shows #P1 is now the *fastest* surging variant in UK—and making strong headway into UK against headwinds of #B117.🧵…
2) #P1 growth rate is the fastest in the UK according to latest variant technical report.
3) #P1 is also competing strongly and faster than #B117 in the Netherlands against #b117 headwind too.
Read 5 tweets
OUTCOMPETING the faster #B117—despite the contagious 🇬🇧 #B117 variant being >90% of all #COVID19 cases, #P1 🇧🇷 is still surging in underbelly—increasing faster than #B117 in 🇳🇱, displacing wildtype quickly. Same bad signal in BC🇨🇦 too. Need fast action! 🧵…
2) In BC 🇨🇦, in just 4 days #P1 variant from Brazil 🇧🇷 has surged 57%, while #B117 only up 17%. Even on an absolute scale, #P1 is also outpacing B117.

Both signals worrisome. #P1 is speculated to be 2-2.5x faster transmission, while #B117 estimated to be 40-60% faster than wild.
3) One Brazil group estimates 2.5x faster transmission (150% increase) for #P1.
Read 6 tweets
VERY WORRIED—Runaway train #P1 variant still uncontrolled in British Columbia 🇨🇦—surging 57% in just 4 days! In contrast, other contagious 🇬🇧variant #B117 only up 17%. #P1 from🇧🇷 is outcompeting #B117 by absolute increase too! BC must act! #bcpoli #COVID19…
2) #P1 clearly a crisis in BC. But notice it’s relatively new uptick in Ontario and Alberta too. This is a bad sign.
3) it is incumbent on BC Canada 🇨🇦 health leaders (@DrBonnieHenry @adriandix @jjhorgan) to contain #P1 immediately. Or else it endangers not only rest of Canada but also North America and maybe even rest of the world. #P1 is ~2-2.5x more transmissible—the fastest variant to date.
Read 12 tweets
Hier ist das Szenario, vor dem ich als Politiker so richtig Schiss hätte.

@cdu, @csu, @spdde, @dieLinke, @Die_Gruenen , @fdp denkt mal nach, ob Ihr das wollt.
Wir haben einen ganz guten Impffortschritt und Ende Juli haben alle Erwachsenen, die wollen eine erste Impfung. Vielleicht 80%.

Bezogen auf Erwachsene und Kinder sind das dann zwei Drittel der Bevölkerung.
Die Bundesnotbremse hält bestenfalls die Inzidenz bei 100, darunter gibt es keine Maßnahmen. Die Länder werden nicht weiter senken, das haben sie monatelang bewiesen.
Read 20 tweets
In Israel bestätigt sich, dass die südafr. Variante #B1351 den Immunschutz besser umgehen kann. Unter den *sehr wenigen* Fällen, in denen es trotz Impfung zur Infektion kam, war die Variante überproportional stark vertreten. Gute Nachricht: trotzdem verbreitet sie sich nicht.
Das heisst einerseits, dass die Gefahr real ist, dass solche Varianten in einer geimpften Bevölkerung einen deutlichen Vorteil ggü Wildtyp oder auch #B117 haben. Wir tun also gut daran, #B1351 oder #P1 Fälle streng zu überwachen und verstärkt einzudämmen. Siehe auch:

Aber ich bin trotzdem aus versch. Gründen optimistisch. 1) Schwere Erkrankung wird durch die Impfung in praktisch allen Fällen vermieden! Hauptziel ✅
2) Ich bin nicht sicher, ob es #B1351 (oder auch #B117+E484K) schaffen, sich in einer geimpften Bevölkerung zu verbreiten.
Read 10 tweets

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