1/ $SE a thread🧵on the evolution of SeaMoney, Sea’s digital financial services (DFS). Things are about to get interesting: critical pieces ♟ are now falling into place + incremental monetization can begin at scale ⬇️⬇️⬇️
2/ What is SeaMoney? It includes payments services such as ShopeePay (e-wallet) + AirPay (reverse ATM), nascent digital 🏦 in 🇸🇬 + 🇮🇩 + a range of consumer/SMB financing products inc. BNPL (SPayLater) + seller loans (SPinjam) ➡️ services are launched/adapted at country level $SE
3/ Rivals - Grab + Gojek are regional rivals. Sea’s advantages include access to funding, its regional network + superior use-case (🛍). Multiple players can be successful + niche specialists will emerge $SE
4/ Slow burner - SeaMoney + its legacy services have been around awhile: AirPay launched in 2014 to facilitate e-payments for Garena. Until 2020, DFS took a back-seat as Sea slowly built out its payments infra, formed 🤝 with 🏦 + let comps spend on CAC + educate populations $SE
5/ 2020 inflection point - in Q3’20, >30% of orders on Shopee 🛍 went through ShopeePay. I expect this to rise to >50% + $5b in quarterly TPV ($2.1b in Q3’20) in 2021. Rev contrib for this piece at maturity should be in the 1-2% range (of transaction value) $SE
6/ Offline push - $SE has been spending big on promos, ads + cash-back at offline 3P vendors (🥡 + 🧋). The reason is simple ➡️ attractive CAC + potential to sell high margin products/services when its digital banks 🏦 come online, as illustrated by Ark:
7/ Why digital 🏦 licenses are imp - Singapore + Indonesia are 2️⃣ 🔑 markets for DFS. 🇸🇬 is the regional financial hub + 🇮🇩 is the largest market. It will take time for these 🏦 to grow but $SE will eventually provide loans using balances w/o 3P 🏦 + manage risk using data
8/ $SE already offers a solid range of DF services. All of these are exploratory + small in scale currently. BNPL is perhaps the most interesting now but lending more widely related to Shopee🛍 has significant LT rev potential
9/ $SE End Game - expect to see gradual ramp of services across SEA + further digital 🏦 license apps. The 🎯 is to offer consumers + Shopee🛍 sellers an integrated digital financial dashboard. The value per customer in EMs is more modest, but the model is the same / END

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More from @EMparadigmshift

29 Sep 20
A thread🧵 on telehealth in SE Asia + opportunity for $SE (and others) in the next decade🧐 ➡️

1️⃣ Indonesia 🇮🇩 is the 4th most populous country in the 🌎 + is expected to grow by 40% by 2050, ⛽️ demand for healthcare. Other SEA countries possess similar demographics
2️⃣🇮🇩 has 12 hospital 🛏 + 4 doctors 🥼 per 10,000 👥 (lower than other SE Asia countries)

3️⃣ Halodoc, Alodokter + GrabHealth – main players in 🇮🇩 + have seen usage sky 🚀 during the pandemic. Numerous other start-up platforms in other SEA countries ➡️ fragmented
Where does $SE fit in🧩

4️⃣ In August, Forrest Li said he was keeping an 👁 on new 🎯 including food services, e-learning + telehealth

5️⃣ SeaMoney is the core strategic focus now but any hints of move into telehealth?
Read 8 tweets
16 Sep 20
$SE Shopee 🛍 + its path to profitability ➡️ a thread🧵

1️⃣ Shopee 🛍 headline EBITDA losses (between $250m and $310m in each of the past several Qs) at a business level are, in isolation, misleading ➡️ they do not tell the full picture 🖼

Here's why ➡️
2️⃣ It is important instead to 👀 unit economics ➡️ at order level. As its comp position has 💪 in recent Qs – it was ranked no. 1 🥇in key download and engagement metrics in Q2 20 ➡️ EBITDA loss per order has continued to narrow Q on Q, from $2.07 in Q4 16 to $0.50 in Q2 20. $SE
3️⃣ Shopee 🛍 has increased its take-rate over the past 3 years from 0.1% (Q1 17) to 6.3% in (Q2 20)

🔹This number is "inflated" by the inclusion of VAS (logistics services to cross-border sellers) and handling fees
Read 8 tweets
8 Sep 20
1️⃣ While the narrative in 🇺🇸 and other dev markets switches to a potential COVID vaccine, the reality for many emerging markets (EMs) including 🇮🇩 + 🇧🇷 is the wait may be significantly longer. Consumers and sellers are adapting to a new normal.
2️⃣ The longer this period of uncertainty persists, the more entrenched digital consumer preferences will become, the more sellers (both small and large) will shift their focus to online marketplaces and distribution channels.
3️⃣ Consumers in EMs are not just spending more online as forecasted in 2019, they're also buying into more categories online, including previously underpenetrated areas such as 🍎🌽🥕🥔(online and fresh) and non-alcoholic beverages.
Read 6 tweets
18 Aug 20
- some takeaways from the Q2’20 con call:
1. “profound structural shift” across all markets which will be “long-lasting”
2. nearly 50m paying users / above 10% of total users (500m) for 🎮
3. Free Fire 🔥: peak DAUs of 100m + top grossing game in 🇧🇷 and 🇮🇩

4. partnering with Netflix/Money Heist for “in game takeover”
5. Acceleration in July for 🎮 - bodes well for Q3
6. 🛍 accelerating growth in all markets v Q1. More global and local brands joined.
7. Monetization ramped 📈 despite SMB support program

8. “Shopee Stories” launched for sellers
9. DFS 💳 - 50% growth v Q1, more adoption by Shopee users (45% of total orders in 🇮🇩)
10. Full year guidance: confident of “out performance” (🎮) but no change yet.
11. 🇹🇼 / 🇻🇳 growth in 🛍 high despite no lockdown

Read 4 tweets
18 Aug 20
some takeaways from Q2:
1. DBNER at 183% 😳
2. Pricing model means the co grows with dev clients - eg Scener has grown 100x since March
3. 300+ use cases
4. Usage in 🇨🇳 remained high after lockdown ended
5. Int’l expansion continues - LatAm mentioned

6. <20% bump in usage attributable to COVID + user pref for live video tools permanent
7. GM impacted by 🌎 expansion + infrastructure costs. Regional pricing to be rolled out. LT GM will 📈
8. Educ remains most promising use case + exam invigilation emerging

9. Re 🇺🇸 + 🇨🇳 tensions: no impact currently / can’t control
10. No +10% customers this Q
11. New platform tool roll out soon: “XRA” - measures performance/quality of platform.
12. S&M expense as % of revenue dropped significantly. Trend will continue

Read 4 tweets
2 Jul 20
what’s the current state of play in Indonesia’s crowded fintech/e-payments sector? “According to Sea Group’s quarterly report, Shopee Indonesia registered more than 185 million orders in the first three months of this year, or a daily average of over 2 million orders....
.... , and more than 40% of Shopee’s gross orders in Indonesia were paid for through ShopeePay. That means ShopeePay has been able to gain high traction through e-commerce transactions alone.”
...like all other platforms, ShopeePay aims to rapidly expand its suite of online and offline third-party use cases and partnerships too. Today, you can easily find ShopeePay’s promotional banners in shopping malls throughout Jakarta, side by side with GoPay and Ovo’s own.....
Read 6 tweets

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