Thread by @mentalplex

AZ dispensing rate thread:

I mentioned there were a few quirks in the CDC data yesterday. More to investigate, but for now, doses administered by day violates some assumptions required for a useful model. I'll post the graph, but take the 7-day model with a grain of salt.

@CDCgov data
84% of doses are in arms
7-day model isn't valid (see above), but meets doses on hand 2021-02-24

@AZDHS
14-day model meets target coverage between 2021-09-24 and 2021-12-05

Yesterday's thread is linked:

https://twitter.com/mentalplex/status/1362985886539870208?s=20

I've switched to using USCB population denominators (estimate mid 2019 population) rather than ADHS population denominators (estimate early 2019 population) starting today, in order to make comparisons with national data consistent.

I hope to have more to add re: national context tomorrow. For now, it's late on Saturday night, so lets get on with the summaries

Doses on hand (1/2):
9080 more doses reported delivered as of today, bringing the total delivered this MMWR week to 294 780 doses through Friday, with one day still to go in this MMWR week. As mentioned yesterday, this resolves county shortages.

Doses on hand (2/2):
More doses are expected Monday. The state has 262 960 doses on hand, which should bring us well into next week.

Vaccine target summary:
AZ will most likely need to give about 10-13 million shots to prevent recurring outbreaks. The 14-day model gets us there between 2021-09-24 and 2021-12-05. Beginning today, this model extrapolates to USCB population estimates, as mentioned above.

Explainer and FAQ linked:

https://twitter.com/mentalplex/status/1355633128287571970?s=20