AZ dispensing rate thread:

As mentioned earlier, @CDCgov changed the way it reported certain vaccine data last week. While I finalize a new analysis pipeline, let's catch up on the state data.

Previous thread is linked:
As of 2021-02-21 (yesterday):

@AZDHS data
14-day model meets target coverage between 2021-09-30 and 2021-12-13.

Note that the 21 day model through 2021-02-21 meets target coverage before the 14-day model. See the explainer, this pattern is something we're on the lookout for.
As of 2021-02-22 (today):

@AZDHS data
14-day model meets target coverage between 2021-10-12 and 2021-12-29

21-day is still faster, and the difference is more pronounced.
Vaccine target summary:
AZ will most likely need to give about 10-13 million shots to prevent recurring outbreaks. The 14-day model gets us there between 2021-10-12 and 2021-12-29.
Vaccine target summary:
The past two days show slowing in the dispensing rate, with the 14-day model reaching targets later than the 21-day model each day, with the difference between the models increasing.
The pattern with a 21 day model faster than a 14 day model is the opposite of what is described here, and represents a slowing in the dispensing rate.
This slowdown is not entirely driven by the rescheduled appointments in some counties (from last week to this week). State PODs and Maricopa county also appear to be slowing.

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More from @mentalplex

21 Feb
AZ dispensing rate thread:

I mentioned there were a few quirks in the CDC data yesterday. More to investigate, but for now, doses administered by day violates some assumptions required for a useful model. I'll post the graph, but take the 7-day model with a grain of salt.
@CDCgov data
84% of doses are in arms
7-day model isn't valid (see above), but meets doses on hand 2021-02-24

14-day model meets target coverage between 2021-09-24 and 2021-12-05

Yesterday's thread is linked: ImageImage
I've switched to using USCB population denominators (estimate mid 2019 population) rather than ADHS population denominators (estimate early 2019 population) starting today, in order to make comparisons with national data consistent.
Read 8 tweets
19 Dec 20
An RNA vaccine explainer, with background:

Part 1: How do your cells make things?
Each cell in your body with a nucleus contains all the plans needed to make another you, as DNA. These plans are stored in the nucleus (an envelope inside the cell). They need to stay just as they are, for generations, and need to be copied without error when your cells divide.
In any given cell, most of those DNA plans are rolled up and put away. A brain cell doesn't need to make digestive enzymes, so it rolls up those plans and hides them away. A complex set of signals controls how a cell decides what to make and when.
Read 15 tweets

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