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Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
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21 Feb, 7 tweets, 2 min read
Breaking: It is better than expected.

90% reduction in lab confirmed infections. On the heels of earlier news of almost 100% efficacy in preventing COVID deaths. #VaccinesWork @business @naomikresge @jwgale bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
These real world data confirm what we saw in the randomized trials. A much needed and welcome confirmation.
Let's not set goals that no vaccine can accomplish. This is fantastic news. Be happy.
The vaccine stimulates an immune system response that prevents you from getting sick from the infection. COVID vaccines do that well.
Whether COVID vaccines prevent asymptomatic transmissible infection altogether is relevant as long as there is a huge unvaccinated population. As the unvaccinated population becomes a minority, it is moot whether the vaccines prevent asymptomatic infections or not.
Such a disease that only causes mild asymptomatic infections post vaccination is not COVID.
So back to the key message.

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More from @VincentRK

Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
22 Feb
More real world evidence of COVID vaccine efficacy from Scotland. 81% reduction in hospitalization in people 80 years and older. #VaccinesWork @Reuters reuters.com/article/uk-hea…
Add this to data from Israel.
And US nursing homes.
Read 4 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
21 Feb
1 million cases
99% original COVID
1% mutant

3 months go by...
10000 cases
10% original COVID
90% mutant

3 more months go by...
1000 cases
1% original COVID
99% mutant

The story is NOT that mutants are now dominant. The story is cases have come down dramatically.
Tweet prompted by a stream of headlines over the last month like this.
When what is happening is this.
Read 6 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
19 Feb
This is the most sustained drop in new COVID cases in the US we have seen since the pandemic started. I'd say the worst is over if we can be patient with masks and distancing for a few more months and vaccinate as many people as possible. #Hope
Because testing is increasing, & because variants may cause asymptomatic/mild infections even in people who have been vaccinated, we may see case numbers bounce around.

The metric to follow is deaths from COVID. I think we are seeing the beginning of a trend that will continue.
The other metrics to follow to judge success are hospitalizations and ICU admissions. Going by what is happening in Israel where over 50% of the population has had one dose of the vaccine, I have no doubt there will be marked reduction in severe COVID with vaccination.
Read 4 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
19 Feb
It is finally happening. After the expected lag of 3-4 weeks, deaths from COVID in the US are finally coming down. This is fantastic, and I am confident that with ongoing vaccination the drop will be sustained. @ASlavitt #VaccinesWork
The most reliable and meaningful metrics to follow to assess the efficacy of COVID vaccination from this point forward are deaths, hospitalizations, and ICU bed occupancy. Not the number of cases.
With variants emerging, a certain proportion of mild reinfections occurring, and the ease of testing increasing, the number of cases is not a meaningful metric to use for public policy, unless accompanied by rise in severe cases.

This is important.
Read 5 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
17 Feb
India has 1.3 billion people.
4 times that of the US.

What’s going on is just amazing and needs in depth immunologic studies. These are raw numbers!
When I adjust to population, the differences are even more striking.
You cannot undercount ten times the death rate. That would also mean also undercounting 20 times the hospitalizations.

With friends& reporters I’m in touch with across the country, India has had nowhere near the deaths the US has per capita. Life is normal even in big cities
Read 12 tweets
Vincent Rajkumar Profile picture
16 Feb
We should recognize how consensus medical guidelines are written. It’s a group of individual people discussing and agreeing on something. The bigger the group the more likely you will end up with a laundry list of options meant to keep everyone happy.
Sometimes in order to get consensus, recommendations get diluted to something everyone agrees with. Which may not necessarily be the correct one.

From masks to vaccines we have seen this phenomenon with COVID.
Here’s more to think about.
Read 4 tweets

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