Yeah, the "we don't know how well this vaccine works and it probably won't help that much" rhetoric is basically the way you'd kneecap the vaccine rollout by making ordinary people falsely think that the vaccine is not that effective
I don't know why it is, but the minute we deliver good news about the vaccine being really good at blocking transmission (as shown in Israel) or being extraordinarily effective at preventing hospitalization, people jump on it to virtue signal about recklessness.
Like, sorry folks, but given the (rather baseless) skepticism embedded in America about vaccinations, the average person will be paying attention to rhetoric way more, and if you tell them the vaccine won't make much of a difference, why would they take it?
"we will have to permanently social distance now, so give up on normality because the vaccine really won't help that much, as we need to wear a mask and socially distance for months afterwards and then it might mutate more" congrats on doom-posting your way to disaster!
like, is it true you need to wear a mask after vaccination, because others probably haven't been vaccinated yet? yes! absolutely!

is there a way to message that without making people feel hopeless and despondent about life never returning to normal? also yes!!
The vaccine is extraordinarily effective and should be advertised as such. If you continue to jump on any possible weak points when messaging, all you're doing is sowing doubt into people's minds about its efficacy and actually manifesting the worst-case scenarios into existence.

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More from @lxeagle17

22 Feb
So, do people think a lack of canvassing only means a turnout differential?

A lack of voter outreach also means folks can switch their vote too, because they just don’t see one side at all.
I said that the GOP drew heavily on low propensity voters turning out to boost their votes in the RGV — in essence, giving you some type of “manufactured swings”. But it’s not like that’s independent from a pool of voters switching their vote.
The word here is “key”. No one denies that there was some swing — how else could Biden underrun Clinton’s raw vote total in Starr?

But that swing is also likely connected to a lack of outreach and canvassing that saw the new GOP voters drown out the new Democratic votes.
Read 4 tweets
18 Feb
Properly messaged, this scandal can seriously do some immense damage to Ted Cruz, even accounting for the fact that his re-election campaign is 3 years out.
Something like this bruises his favorability ratings among low-information voters, and it's generally kept independent of legislation and directly impacts the "trust" factor that is on an individual basis. It's a bit different from a party not delivering on campaign promises.
Photos play really well with the public if properly used and end up hurting the candidate among voters who don't tune into politics much and only know him as the "asshole who went to Cancun".
Read 4 tweets
16 Feb
Democrats have nearly hit the floor in Tennessee -- the state's elasticity reflects the lean of many ancestrally D areas staying steady.

But Kentucky may not have finished its GOP slide yet, particularly in the ancestrally Democratic east, and the suburbs aren't moving that much
There's not really too much to save Democrats in Kentucky. Currently, the downballot picture for them is grim -- a strong snap towards the GOP is expected as the presidential results converge with those further down the ballot, while this has already largely happened in TN.
Unfortunately for them, the suburbs haven't moved too much -- you'd want to see a larger swing in Louisville, but that just isn't the case yet. Until that begins accelerating, there's nothing to prevent Democrats sliding further and further down in this state.
Read 5 tweets
14 Feb
A suspicion I have, based on polling and name ID, is that a lot of the reason the "ancestral Democrats" effect persisted downballot is because most people didn't even know who those candidates are but considered themselves Democrats still when name ID was stripped away.
These folks would say "yeah, the national Democrats definitely don't represent me" etc, and that's because they know who those candidates actually are (based on Fox News etc).

But when you strip away name ID, it's down to party ID, which likely tends to take longer to switch.
@JMilesColeman @gelliottmorris @baseballot @SenhorRaposa does anyone have any data to back this up or contradict it? Would love to see some actual research on it but I haven't seen anything, so this is informed only by polling and name ID.
Read 7 tweets
11 Feb
no, Marjorie Taylor Greene cheating on her husband with two different people is not a *good* thing, and she should not be immune to criticism for it. she tries to claim a moral high ground on "family values" while pushing awful QAnon conspiracies and railing against LGBTQ folks.
I'm not naive enough to think that even half of Congress is clean with regards to spousal fidelity. They're not, and it's no secret. I didn't think Cunningham's affair, as bad as it was, disqualified him.

I don't judge political fitness on that. A ton of politicians have affairs
But it *does* reflect on you if you center your image around Family Value policies and then try to strip other people of rights by saying they're not following Biblical Values, all while you decide to break someone's trust and cheat on your spouse.
Read 5 tweets
11 Feb
Me talking to people who say states like Missouri will *never* go blue again:
It could take 20-30 years for Missouri to turn blue again. But things change in politics very quickly, and very weird things tend to happen that we could never have foreseen. Cast your mind back 30 years -- did it seem plausible for a Democrat to win Virginia but not Missouri?
You don't need to pour 40 million into unwinnable races, but you definitely should try to run good candidates in every single state, from West Virginia to Nebraska to Hawaii. The point is to build up infrastructure and party strength to expand your message.
Read 4 tweets

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