USA Today/Suffolk poll: Among Republicans, 46% would abandon the GOP and join another political party if Donald Trump were to start one, while just 27% of Republicans would stay.

Donald Trump owns the Republican party, and that's why they're too cowardly to even try to stop him.
USA Today/Suffolk poll: 76% of Trump voters would vote for Trump in 2024 if he sought the GOP nomination, and 85% would vote for him in the general election.

These numbers are good enough to get Trump the nomination, and bad enough to guarantee he loses in the general election.
USA Today/Suffolk poll: 73% of Republicans do not believe that Joe Biden legitimately won the election and 58% say the attack on the US Capitol was "mostly an antifa-inspired attack that only involved a few Trump supporters."

Say it with me everyone: It's a cult.

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More from @NumbersMuncher

9 Jan
Twitter has the right to suspend whoever they want, and Trump spent months begging them to do so.

But if they want to maintain any confidence in their rules, they need to apply them consistently across the entire spectrum of beliefs.

So far they have not come close to doing so.
Twitter kept Trump's account open because he brought in a ton of valuable traffic, but this week were forced to acknowledge that traffic was also coming from people who were seeking to do harm.

The media did the same thing after giving Trump two billion in free airtime in 2016.
We'll find out soon enough how serious Twitter is about no longer being willing to entertain accounts that promote outright hate, misinformation, and extremist politics.

Trump absolutely deserved to be suspended, but now the real work begins for Twitter to apply that uniformly.
Read 4 tweets
4 Nov 20
Trump comes out and immediately says that a "very sad group of people" are trying to disinfranchise those who voted for him today.

Just incredible to call the process of counting the votes disinfranchising voters.
Trump says it "is also clear we've won Georgia" as the NYT needle shows Biden as the favorite to win the state.
Trump then says it's clear he won North Carolina, which is likely true.

And now he's attacking the Fox News call for Biden to win Arizona.
Read 5 tweets
11 Oct 20
ABC/Washington Post - National Poll (change from last):

Biden 54 (n/c)
Trump 42 (-2)
Jorgenson 2

Biden increases his already large lead from two weeks ago, leading independents by 12.

They are tied among men, but Biden leads women by 23(!) points.

Biden leads seniors 49-48.
ABC/Washington Post poll: Biden leads Trump nationally by 12 among likely voters, 54-42.

Trump leads non-college grads by 5 while Biden leads those with a college degree by 34(!) points.

The two most striking gaps in 2020 are with gender and education.
Look at these education splits on the ABC/Washington Post poll among white voters:

White w/ no college degree: Trump +26
White college graduate: Biden +31

That's a 57 net point gap with white voters between not having a college degree and having one. Just an amazing divide.
Read 6 tweets
13 Sep 20
Fox News national poll (change from last):

Biden 51 (+2)
Trump 46 (+4)

A slight tightening since the convention.

-Trump leads men by 6, Biden leads women by 15.
-Trump leads whites by 11, Biden leads non-whites by 54.
-Biden leads by 6 in the battleground states.
I think this is a big reason that Trump's attacks on Biden aren't moving the needle - Biden's favorables are 16 net points higher.

Voters hated both Trump and Hillary in 2016, but Biden isn't Hillary no matter how much Trump tries to turn him into her. Image
After months of the Trump campaign saying that Biden is mentally unfit and needs performance enhancing drugs just to get through a speech, Americans still say Biden is more mentally sound to serve effectively as president than Trump. Image
Read 6 tweets
15 Aug 20
The comedy on Twitter has taken a large hit tonight with the loss of Bill Mitchell's account.

Tonight, in honor of Bill's amazing tweets, we remember some of the gems he provided for us. #RIPBillMitchellsAccount Image
I don't care what anyone says, this might be the greatest thing that Bill Mitchell ever tweeted.

#RIPBillMitchellsAccount #ItsJustMath Image
That time when Bill Mitchell was downplaying death to reopen the economy sooner during COVID.

#RIPBillMitchellsAccount #ItsJustMath Image
Read 5 tweets
28 Jul 20
The replies to tweets about COVID-19 are so depressing.

When did politics turn into a religion where people rely solely on emotions while ignoring the evidence, data, and medical experts to follow a leader who blatantly lies every day?

Facts do not care about your feelings.
I fully realize that many medical experts said not to buy masks in February, but they came around pretty quickly once they better understood how COVID spreads.

This idea that we can't change our approach to something is absolutely stupid. Do you still believe the Earth is flat?
As humans we are wired to seek community, but unfortunately that (plus social media) has turned politics into a fundamentalist religion where we shut off any sources that disagree with us, and further celebrate the distrust of experts to maintain plausibility to those beliefs.
Read 4 tweets

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