In 1966, Shell asked scientist James Lovelock "to consider the possible global consequences of air pollution from...the ever-increasing rate of combustion of fossil fuels."
It's an early example of how Big Oil studied climate, colonised academia, & invented climate denial 1/n
3/n: So in 1966 Lovelock, wrote a report called 'Combustion of Fossil Fuels: Large Scale Atmospheric Effects', which, as @leaharonowsky observes, "brought Shell up to speed on the latest fossil-fuel climate research".
4/n: In his report, Lovelock summarised the then-contemporary scientific consensus that fossil fuel combustion was causing both global warming and global cooling due to "the greenhouse effect" and "atmospheric turbidity", respectively.
5/n: Although Lovelock's concern that climate might on balance cool rather than warm would prove incorrect, Shell's response was foreshadowing: They insisted that Lovelock not discuss the topic "with non-Shell people".
6/n: Instead, Shell encouraged Lovelock to pursue research that would ultimately lay some of the key conceptual foundations of climate denial: a series of research projects to identify organisms whose biological activities might double as climate-regulating mechanisms.
7/n: In 1970, Lovelock proposed a project to Shell to identify biological (algae) sources of "atmospheric turbidity". This was important for determining “how far the products of the petroleum industry were contributing to the increase of turbidity and thence to climatic change.”
8/n: "In the algae blooms of the sea," describes @leaharonowsky, "Lovelock discerned proof that the planet could—and would—naturally restore itself to a climate status quo. A novel claim about the world that doubled as an ethic of corporate skepticism was quietly taking shape."
9/n: In 1972, Lovelock gave this claim a name, the Gaia Hypothesis, and in 1975 he and Shell manager Sidney Epton began to popularise it with a cover story in @newscientist.
10/n: "What began as a modest, Shell-sponsored study of algae biochemistry and 'natural' sources of atmospheric turbidity", says @leaharonowsky, was now becoming "a universalized environmental condition". In Gaia, human pollution was naturalised.
11/n: Shell weren't the only ones to cash in on this seed of skepticism about the nature of pollution itself.
In the mid 1970s, Dupont chemical company recruited Lovelock to appear as an expert witness in US congressional hearings on a proposed ban of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).
12/n: But it was on climate change that the Shell-sponsored Gaia hypothesis did its most enduring damage.
As @leaharonowsky puts it, "Gaia created the conditions for a denialism that derived its power by denying the uniqueness of humans’ capacity to permanently alter the Earth."
13/n: For decades to follow, Gaia became a key ingredient in fossil fuel propaganda.
In Mobil's 1995 advertorial in @nytimes, for example, they downplayed environmental concerns by arguing that the planet is "one strong lady, resilient and capable of rejuvenation".
14/n: The Gaia story is a particularly egregious case of what @BenFranta & I term Big Oil's colonisation of academia:
15/n: In a twist of irony, Lovelock has in recent decades flipped from one extreme to the other. Gaia has gone from "a device for naturalising fossil fuel emissions" to "a symbol of the existential threat that global warming poses to humanity".
16/n: In other words, Gaia has gone from informing one form of climate denial & delay to another. From legitimising opposition to basic climate science; to rationalising doomist appeals to "enjoy life while you can" because "catastrophe is inevitable". theguardian.com/theguardian/20…
17/n: As @leaharonowsky concludes, "However one might want to defend Gaia...it is impossible to ignore its status equally as a corporate tool for forestalling the threat of anthropogenic change from becoming fact."
18/n: P.S. Curiously, Lovelock was ahead of his time in one seemingly unintentional form of on-point climate comms, pointing out in his 1970 book that "fossil gas" is NOT "natural gas".
TODAY, in our peer-reviewed follow-up analysis putting to bed ExxonMobil's attacks on our work, I & @NaomiOreskes delineate "three distinct ways in which the data demonstrate [they] misled the public" about climate change: bit.ly/ExxonAddendum
Let me count the ways...THREAD
2/n: TLDR:
Both Exxon & Mobil variously engaged in both climate science & in climate denial, & continued to do so after they merged to become ExxonMobil.
"We now conclude with even greater confidence that Exxon, Mobil, & ExxonMobil Corp misled the public about climate change."
3/n: WAY1⃣: "From a statistical standpoint it is essentially certain" that "Exxon+ExxonMobil's private+academic documents predominantly acknowledge" climate science while ExxonMobil's ads "overwhelmingly promote doubt".
"This unambiguously reaffirms our original conclusion."
2/n: We find that ExxonMobil's critiques, penned by company VP Vijay Swarup, "are misleading & incorrect."
Ironically, "thanks in part to his feedback, we can now conclude with even greater confidence that Exxon, Mobil, & ExxonMobil Corp have all misled the public."
3/n: As @NaomiOreskes and I summarise in The Guardian today:
"ExxonMobil is swinging for a way to discredit the work that demonstrates what they have done. Alas, it is a swing and a miss." theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
NEW: In @nature today, my colleagues and I make the case that ending fossil fuel subsidies matters greatly, “in ways both material and political.” THREAD.
3/n: This stood in stark contrast to earlier research by some of us, which found that, without subsidies, HALF of the US's future oil production would be unprofitable at $50/barrel oil prices. nature.com/articles/s4156…
In 1977, Exxon scientist James Black warned executives of the "effect of CO2 on an interglacial scale." His knowledge of historical global temps & prediction of a "carbon dioxide induced 'super-interglacial'" (in black) was remarkably consistent w/ today's best models (red). 1/n
NEW landmark @UNEP et al. report shows almost all countries' climate commitments ring hollow. While governments pledge to cut greenhouse gas *emissions*, they are simultaneously investing in fossil fuel *production* at double(!) the safe limit. THREAD.
2/n: This is cognitive dissonance on a global scale. It's like promising to go on a diet while simultaneously baking a cake. reuters.com/article/us-cli…
3/n: As @CNN observes, the climate movement's years of calls to #KeepItInTheGround are based on science, yet "many of the world's governments are not heeding [scientists'] calls." cnn.com/2019/11/20/wor…
"Asked to explain why Exxon’s climate-related ads are not political, @Twitter declined to comment. A Harvard researcher who studies Exxon for a living, however, did not hold back."
2/n: First, and most crucially, I declare my personal slogan henceforth to be: Not holding back since 2019™.
3/n: As I discuss with @emorwee, Mobil & ExxonMobil have pioneered issue advertising for decades, on climate change and every other topic of political concern to them. I know because I've read pretty much all of them. nytimes.com/2017/08/22/opi…