#SD20 just south of the TC is a good example of a district anchored by a very blue city, but contain enough rural/exurban votes to cancel it out. The GLC candidate pulling nearly 6 points helped balloon the margin to 14.5 points. A moot point as he probably wins by 10 anyhow.
When I say a blue city, I mean a very blue city that backed Biden by 47 points. (Note though that the Dakota County precinct of the city is not in SD20. That Dakota county precinct, however is a few points to the right of the Rice County portion)
Biden didn't perform particularly well district-wide as he only ran a little over 2 points better than Clinton.
The DFL managed to hold on to #HD20B, but by a smaller margin than in recent cycles. The non-Northfield portions are getting quite red and the crack of Northfield between Counties and HD and SD lines doesn't help either.
Smith lost the district by double digits or about twice as much as she lost it by in 2018. The combination of Walz and Klobuchar at the top of the ticket in 2018 likely helped here.
On that note, Walz still lost the district in 2018 by about as much as did Dayton in 2014.
The district holds an interesting distinction of being a Senate district that the GOP holds despite voting against both 2012 amendments.

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More from @ActorAaronBooth

23 Feb
Another tale of an affluent MN suburb moving left in the Trump era: #SD53. Obama +4.7 to Clinton +12.5 to Biden +21.5. Went from being ~3 points to the right of the state in 2012 to over 14 points to the left in 2020. ImageImageImage
#SD53 was considerably wider in 2020 than 2016, but still ran well behind the top of the ticket. ImageImageImage
In all but Oakdale P-1 and Landfall did Biden run ahead of Kent. The GOP ran a former Mayor of Woodbury which makes up a lot of the district and probably helped narrow at least part of the margin. Image
Read 7 tweets
22 Feb
75-20 on Greenfield. I am missing an aye, will update when I figure that out. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
The yeas and nays there are correct, it is just that one of the blank ones are an aye. The other 4 didn't vote.
Updated: Blunt was the 75th Aye. Blackburn, Murray, Blunt, Toomey and Moran didn't vote. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 4 tweets
22 Feb
Hyde-Smith an Aye on Greenfield 👀
And Young is an aye. This will easily pass cloture.
And Johnson.
Read 9 tweets
22 Feb
Possible maybe the WH knows the nomination is going down anyhow? Though, if that is the case here then why not just pull the nomination.
To follow this logic though: maybe you leave her out to dry to help get Haaland through? If you can convince Sanders to back her out of committee, maybe you let it fail on the floor by however many votes to give Senators a chance to oppose someone to get room to back another?
So then Murkowski can say “I opposed one controversial Biden nominee in Tanden and then backed Haaland because Congressman Young supported her” or something to that effect?
Read 4 tweets
22 Feb
It would be pretty hard to justify anything other than a 4-3 Biden map (that was plausibly 4-3 Trump in 2016). The question may be: how far to the right of the state would the GOP demand the median district be?
Maybe a world where you hand then 3 safe R+>20 seats insulated from a big DFL wave and then make seat 4 a Biden +3 seat which would be R+4 compared to the state. A map that relativly favors the GOP vs statewide performance, though still roughly reflecting overall partisanship?
Inevitably, such a median seat would trend left if current trends continue, so the 4-3 GOP window could be limited, but yet enough for then to take it as a win?
Read 4 tweets

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