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22 Feb, 9 tweets, 1 min read
Hyde-Smith an Aye on Greenfield 👀
And Young is an aye. This will easily pass cloture.
And Johnson.
I have 40-10 right now
Even Lee is an aye 🤷🏼‍♂️
Right now I have 71-18 (non-zero chance I missed one)
A bit of a weird coalition: Lee, Johnson and Hyde-Smith but not Sasse.
The missing votes I have right now are Blackburn, Blunt, Graham, Moran, Murray, Paul & Toomey. 73-20
Graham, Aye.

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More from @ActorAaronBooth

Aaron Booth Profile picture
23 Feb
Since @TheMuppets are on everyone’s mind, a reminder that @franksinatra once recorded the song Bein’ Green. open.spotify.com/track/1YrcdJX5…
As did @itstonybennett in a duet with @KermitTheFrog: open.spotify.com/track/0TlciUGv…
And @iammrvandy... open.spotify.com/track/0DYaQD3g…
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
23 Feb
Another tale of an affluent MN suburb moving left in the Trump era: #SD53. Obama +4.7 to Clinton +12.5 to Biden +21.5. Went from being ~3 points to the right of the state in 2012 to over 14 points to the left in 2020.
#SD53 was considerably wider in 2020 than 2016, but still ran well behind the top of the ticket.
In all but Oakdale P-1 and Landfall did Biden run ahead of Kent. The GOP ran a former Mayor of Woodbury which makes up a lot of the district and probably helped narrow at least part of the margin.
Read 7 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
22 Feb
75-20 on Greenfield. I am missing an aye, will update when I figure that out. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
The yeas and nays there are correct, it is just that one of the blank ones are an aye. The other 4 didn't vote.
Updated: Blunt was the 75th Aye. Blackburn, Murray, Blunt, Toomey and Moran didn't vote. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
22 Feb
Possible maybe the WH knows the nomination is going down anyhow? Though, if that is the case here then why not just pull the nomination.
To follow this logic though: maybe you leave her out to dry to help get Haaland through? If you can convince Sanders to back her out of committee, maybe you let it fail on the floor by however many votes to give Senators a chance to oppose someone to get room to back another?
So then Murkowski can say “I opposed one controversial Biden nominee in Tanden and then backed Haaland because Congressman Young supported her” or something to that effect?
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
22 Feb
It would be pretty hard to justify anything other than a 4-3 Biden map (that was plausibly 4-3 Trump in 2016). The question may be: how far to the right of the state would the GOP demand the median district be?
Maybe a world where you hand then 3 safe R+>20 seats insulated from a big DFL wave and then make seat 4 a Biden +3 seat which would be R+4 compared to the state. A map that relativly favors the GOP vs statewide performance, though still roughly reflecting overall partisanship?
Inevitably, such a median seat would trend left if current trends continue, so the 4-3 GOP window could be limited, but yet enough for then to take it as a win?
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
22 Feb
This is where an all at-large Congressional race in MN would get sticky for either party. Would either party want this mess?
Data source: mn.electionarchives.lib.umn.edu/search/
Big caveat: there isn't the quirky FL/GOP/D split like 1932 today, so I would guess the winning percentages would be >40%'s rather than in the 30%'s
Read 9 tweets

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