1/x The market has been in desperate need of refreshing...& SO, w/ Vanna & our charming sloth are still off enjoying their vacation @ the🏖until 12/25-26 in this seasonally weak period, & the market a bit overbought, & Sentiment (low short interest/low Put Call ratios) near ATH’s
2/x & w/ a lack of breadth & underlying weakness from NDX market leadership, like TSLA (where skew & bearish flows have showed signs of a potential crack in the edifice), W/ index skew @ the 95th+%, fragility on the tails increasingly dramatic, also displayed in historic VVIX/VIX
3/x extremes...the market APPEARS to be doing just that. We seem to be 6 days into our called 1.5 week period of correction in time/price. as mentioned, if we’re unable to break our important technic support & Gary’s able to hold his grip above the 1 stdev down of 20 day(2 days)
4/x by 2/26. This correction should be bought into for another retail driven meme stimy shopping spread & reopening exuberance ahead...B/c despite all the obvious headwinds, ONLY 1 THING MATTERS right now, & That’s DON’T FIGHT THE TREASURY... w/ 1)new $1400 stimy checks hitting
5/x retail bank accounts again in early Mar & 2)increased narratives surrounding a likely coming huge BBB infrastructure plan reveal @ the coming SOTU all while 3) we’re likely to see an accelerated spring reopening... this coming run could be something to behold, particularly in
6/x certain pockets of the market... but the steep rally’ll likely be relatively short lived, for by the time the infrastructure bill begins to get traction, 1)Taxes’ll come due in mid April, 2) it’ll be time to realize LTGains from last March’s buying... & maybe most importantly
7/x 3)the economy should begin to reopen, diverting precious $$ & attention from retail equity demand back to the real economy while 4)pushing yields up & diverting even more $$ from stonks back to bonds, as TINA ever so slightly begins to unwind...that 1 could very well get ugly
8/x as the old SELL IN MAY & GO AWAY adage, LIVES UP TO ITS REPUTATION. In the meantime, it is time to play for a bit of mean reversion starting tomorrow into THURSDAY. Watch carefully for signs of fixed strike Vol unpinning Gary. Watch for increased fear by retail in the form of
9/x higher put/call equity & watch a potential test of the 20 day SMA or even 1 std dev down of the 20 day for strength. Ultimately, as is usually the case, time’s on the side of the bulls...But the🪟continues to be open for potential continued weakness & it’s still a time for
10/x caution for a few more days... If someone can manage to take Gary 🦍’s 🍌’s away with a drop below our technical break, things could get ugly this week, but that big of a break seems increasingly unlikely. We continue to buy cheap hedged long index calls, & cheap downside
11/11 convexity funded w/ local Vol & long TSLA collars for convexity for a few more brief days in this🪟, 👁ing an opp to catch the next nuclear rocket-ship🚀to the🌙, if/when the 🌟✨ align... YOLO. Pick you’re spot on a coming correction & ride it w/ a tight stop. Good luck!🍀
🤦‍♂️ your. @jack edit button please.

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More from @jam_croissant

24 Feb
1/x Gary continues to be well fed...Despite every negative narrative in the 📚 being thrown at him: Bitcoin/Tether Fraud, TSLA neg Vanna Flows+ Elon/El Chapo rumors, alternating HSE/NDX overnight crashes, Cali Covid strains, & ARKK doomsday machines... he has stood in the hole
2/x & held the Wheel of Fortune together. & despite the fact that he’s clearly tiring a bit, time’s on his side. Vanna should be back from the🏖Fri, refreshed, reinvigorated & ready to shine that $$ smile of hers & boost ratings...Only 1 Q? remains, can Gary last 2.5 more days?
3/x There are strong reasons to believe the answer is YES. Not only is Gary well fed, but as pointed out, the exuberance of 2 wks ago’s a distant memory, as pervasive pessimism & neg narratives. now abound. Once significantly overbot positioning & poor breadth have now normalized
Read 13 tweets
16 Feb
1/x Things change quickly around here...Just 2 weeks ago SPX traded 260 pts lower amidst HF deleveraging, while seasoned PM’s clamored about how it was likely the end of the bull market... Now, as the market explodes to our long expected ***objective of 3952, it seems superhuman,
2/x virtually unstoppable. Such is the power of the emotional center of the 🧠, the amygdala. The truth is little’s changed. We remain in an uptrend from bottom left to top right, & Gary’s very much still in control. Yes, there are innumerable reasons for secular concern after a
3/x 23% SPX rally since Sep & nearly 80% rally off the Mar bottom. It’s still a seasonally weak period, w/ mind-bending complacency towards dramatic policy uncertainty under a new admin, which should be on display @ Biden’s SOTU on 2/23. Vanna has less & less power these days, w/
Read 14 tweets
10 Feb
1/x ‘never short a dull market...’ is a tried & true Wall Street adage, and risk premia decay and the charm that accompanies it is the primary driver of the phenomenon. The last few days, along w/ the next few to come are a glimpse of this wild creature in its natural habitat...
2/x Charm is like a tree sloth 🦥. Charming & consistent but w/out the sex appeal & superhuman force of our WofF host, Vanna or our 10k lb 🦍, Gary. That said, if he’s anything, he’s predictable, particularly much like Vanna, when Gary is well fed his 🍌’s... w/ the long weekend
3/x approaching & OpEx & Vixperation soon after, this is the time for our lazy low metabolism friend to shine. He is nocturnal & particularly active @ the EOD’s, from 2pm until 9am CST, as his theta clock accelerates during these windows. Tune in for our live NOVA special on 🦥!
Read 13 tweets
8 Feb
1/x 1 thing we don’t talk about much is Vanna’s Charming propensity to inflate & support the Neilson ratings (Valuations) to unimaginable heights. So many just tune in for the wheel of Fortune b/c she’s on, elegantly turning those letters…Not b/c the actual W of Fortune gameshow
2/x is necessarily deserving of those kind of ratings. This becomes very apparent the longer she is around, the more euphoric the producers become about their show, completely oblivious to how essential she is to the longevity of their astronomic ratings. But when she is away, it
3/x becomes abundantly clear that the game show is no Wheel of Fortune without her… Luckily, she is not only around this week, but well rested & relaxed. Gary is well fed again (through Feb12) & will make sure none of the other animals break out of their cages & are in anyway a
Read 13 tweets
3 Feb
1/x & WE’RE DONE. Just like that the 💣astic comparisons to LTCM & Lehman are over, as we predicted.Thus is the power of VANNA. & Now that she’s Charmed all the🦒🦓 🦔back into their cages & Gary🦍’s once again well fed, it’s 🕰 for Vanna & Gary to team up for everyone’s favorite
2/x game show: The Wheel of Fortune. It’s a predictable show, w/ Gary around, but the charming daily payouts (of VRP) & bonus round winnings (market returns) make it worth the price of admission. Through 2/16 Gary should be able to keep the show under control w/his eyes closed,
3/x As Vanna has provided him an all you can eat portion of 🍌 🍌 until 2/12, & w/ Vanna around the ratings (SPX) should climb to new highs. That said, Gary should get his rest while he can. Vanna has another vacation planned after President’s day & Vixperation, & given the still
Read 8 tweets

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