1/x Gary continues to be well fed...Despite every negative narrative in the 📚 being thrown at him: Bitcoin/Tether Fraud, TSLA neg Vanna Flows+ Elon/El Chapo rumors, alternating HSE/NDX overnight crashes, Cali Covid strains, & ARKK doomsday machines... he has stood in the hole
https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1363741283206971393
2/x & held the Wheel of Fortune together. & despite the fact that he’s clearly tiring a bit, time’s on his side. Vanna should be back from the🏖Fri, refreshed, reinvigorated & ready to shine that $$ smile of hers & boost ratings...Only 1 Q? remains, can Gary last 2.5 more days?
3/x There are strong reasons to believe the answer is YES. Not only is Gary well fed, but as pointed out, the exuberance of 2 wks ago’s a distant memory, as pervasive pessimism & neg narratives. now abound. Once significantly overbot positioning & poor breadth have now normalized
4/x & time continues to march forward, gradually resolving poor seasonality w/ replacing it w/ historically springy strength. Pos BOM/EOM are also en route to provide a kick off @ the EOW. If this can all simply provide the necessary support w/out a technical break for the next
5/x few days, the glide path should be naturally higher. After all, not only is it a bad idea to pick a fight w/Vanna, but it’s an even worse idea to wage war w/The TREASURY...w/ 1)new $1400 stimy checks hitting retail bank accounts in early Mar & 2)increased narratives
6/x surrounding a likely coming huge BBB infrastructure plan reveal @ the coming SOTU, all paired w/ 3) an increasingly likely accelerated spring reopening...& it is clear that starting this Fri the real risks that most aren’t focused on, are likely to the upside, as a coming run
7/x has the potential to be significant, particularly in certain pockets of the market... but the steep rally will likely be relatively short lived, for by the time the infrastructure bill begins to find traction, 1)Taxes will come due in mid April, 2) it will be time to realize
8/x LTGains from last March’s buying... & maybe most importantly 3) the economy should begin to reopen, diverting precious $$ & attention from retail equity demand back to the real economy while 4)pushing yields up & diverting even more $$ from equities over to bonds...as TINA
9/x ever so slightly begins to unwind....that one could very well get ugly, as the old SELL IN MAY & GO AWAY adage, LIVES UP TO ITS REPUTATION. In the meantime, we have taken off our short exposures for significant profits & continue to patiently👁for opportunities to
10/x initiate longs as time & price continue to develop. We will continue to watch for increased fear by retail in the form of higher put/call equity, & some potential repair of some of the relative weakness in the NDX, all while being Cautiously aware that the🪟of weakness has
11/x not yet closed & we continue to currently battle broad macro weakness. Watch more potential retests of the 20 day SMA &/or 1 std dev down of the 20 day for strength. Ultimately, as is usually the case, time is on the side of the bulls...But it’s still a time for caution for
12/x a few more days... If someone can manage to take Gary 🦍’s 🍌away w/ a decline below our technical break, things could get ugly. We continue to buy cheap hedged long index calls, & cheap downside convexity funded w/ local Vol for convexity for a few more days in this🪟,👁ing
13/13 an opportunity to buy into what increasingly looks like a refreshing correction in time, hopefully catching the next nuclear rocketship to the🌙 , if/ when the ✨ align. YOLO...Good luck! 🍀
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