Gratitude to @JeffBezos: my Saga.

1) As an author, I owe Amazon. Before, publishers were subservient to bookstores & their book placement.
So when I wrote FBR *on my own terms* it was a problem: fictional characters, math discussions, philosophy... Was it popularization? No.
2) Was it about finance? No. It's about what? So no publisher.
I found a weird outfit who accepted at ½ price. Bookstores were good at ignoring my work: why should a neighborhood bookstore isn't interested in higher things, just moving books.
Amazon did not have rigid shelves!
3) There is this romantic idea of the neighborhood bookstore out to save literature, social life, & thinking: these people survive on books that have a specific public. So the "monster" that drove them bust allowed me to get an audience I would've never had.
4)The worst were standard book editors whose employment is to make sure no author ever write on her/his own terms. They lectured me about "focus" (Me: "is your business to focus or to sell books"?).

I exist (as an author) bec. of AMZN. Stores did everything to make me extinct.
5) By the time I moved FBR to RH the scenery had changed. I was lucky earlier publ went kaput.

Publishers adapt. Not bookstores.

It remains that the publishers model is to sell a lot of books quickly, then repeat.The notion of Lindy books is rare & hard to account for.

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More from @nntaleb

13 Feb
COVID, day 12-13. Some days were rough. All OK now.

Rushed to Beirut & spent 18 days helping a parent, visiting in a hospital 2-3/day (Great @aubmc, successful heart valve procedure). With maximal precautions, got infected day 17! Was only person in the party to get it!
2) I have a comment on the protocol inspired by the RECOVERY trial: dexamethasone at a dose of 6 mg/day.
No doctor I called could explain why the dose is not variable to size.
Yet: lungs & blood scale, though lung surface is fractal hence some log effect!

And dexa was a savior!
3) I posted this before the first symptom but was unable to solve it. I will be ONLY be considered cured & mentally recovered if I can solve it.

Read 8 tweets
10 Feb
Friends, a #Medicine Q. Finance has the notions of "leading" & lagging indicators.
In medicine as noticed indep. by @stephen_wolfram, there are leading ind. such as resting heart rate (or HRV).

But when I ask if CRP is "leading or lagging", no Dr. understands my Q.
And what names does medicine use for "leading" and "lagging"?
How about D Dimer? Leading, synchronous, or Lagging?
Read 4 tweets
29 Jan
Not a single movement in Game Stop was an outlier, with a standard power law with tail index 1.8!
Not a single one!
See discussion in "Statistical Cons. of Fat Tails".

"Markets move from squeeze to squeeze". Most squeezes are small. All self-similar.…
This is a summary of the treatise. Not the similarity with unemployment numbers.

Read 5 tweets
17 Jan
So far, only numeric from here.
Unfortunately, no symbolic solution on the horizon. @SrinivasR1729 do you have one?
Read 4 tweets
11 Jan

1/ Remember that social media got Trump elected.

Twitter decided to not be a vehicle for violent insurrection against elected government.

There is no possible evidence that can convince conspiracy weirdoes that the election, ANY election, isn't rigged.
2) Now one MUST wonder: what abt those on the left who also called for violent insurrection agst elected govmnt?

Perhaps there is something about right wing-racial supremacist weirdoes that is especially dangerous, or morally repelling compared to rebellion by race victims.
3) So the compromise is that Twitter MUST ethically ban some pple on the other side who violate similar rules threatening the democratic process.

And if the democratic process seems too flawed owing to lobbies working both sides, consider an active targeting of these lobbyists.
Read 6 tweets
31 Dec 20

LANCET compares life duration of athletes to the life expectancy AT birth for males.

They shd compare them to the conditional expectancy of someone active in same age group!

Effects shrinks yuugely.…
2) 2nd error: conditional on being an athlete one must be in good health so the comparison must be ONLY between otherwise healthy non-athletes & these athletes, conditional on being alive at that age.

Note: (unconditional) LE changes have been mostly affected by child mortality.
3) Finally, for the point they are making (whether extremes lengthen or shorten LE) they must use a comparative cohort of mild exercisers, nothing else.
Read 4 tweets

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