Let’s say it is August/September and the Legislature starts its inevitable special session to redistrict. Considering both parties could have a lot to lose here, might there be an incentive to compromise on a reasonable 4-3 Biden map that protects most incumbents? 🤷🏼‍♂️
The 1932 process involved each party holding a statewide primary to endorse the number of candidates for the number of seats. Involving 9 Dems, 9 R’s 9 FL’ers and 3 Communists. In the general, voters got 9 votes (one for each district) and the top 9 got seats.
In 2022, that likely results in a situation where each party’s more extreme members could quickly become the most vulnerable. You probably expect a lot of straight tickets for all 8, but if someone breaks down the line, it probably would be dropping polarizing candidates.
Could also help the GLC AND LMN become even more of an aid to the GOP as each would be entitled to send 8 candidates each to the general election ballot. Pulling votes directly from the DFL and lowering the bar for the tipping point R accross the board.
As a reminder though: this is just a possibility that may or may not actually happen and isn’t the most likely scenario. Odds are we get maps or keep all 8 districts.
Anyhow, meant to post this earlier, but this is the complaint that was in the email I got earlier from the plaintiff: minnesota.tylerhost.net/DownloadResour…
Annoyingly, the 1932 Congressional results for Minnesota are not in the 1933 Legislative Manual. However, there are statewide vote totals elsewhere.
There were 1,002,843 votes cast in the 1932 Presidential race in MN. The top Congressional seat winner on the statewide ballot received 388,616 votes (~chosen on 38.75% of ballots) and the bottom received 313,221 (~chosen on 31.23% of ballots).
The closes loser was *REALLY* close to getting that 9th seat with 312,198 votes (~chosen on 31.13% of ballots).
That ~ of ballots we can't be exact with as some certainly left the Presidential race blank and voted for Congress or other races on the ballot. Just used the # for the highest office as a best guess.

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23 Feb
Another tale of an affluent MN suburb moving left in the Trump era: #SD53. Obama +4.7 to Clinton +12.5 to Biden +21.5. Went from being ~3 points to the right of the state in 2012 to over 14 points to the left in 2020.
#SD53 was considerably wider in 2020 than 2016, but still ran well behind the top of the ticket.
In all but Oakdale P-1 and Landfall did Biden run ahead of Kent. The GOP ran a former Mayor of Woodbury which makes up a lot of the district and probably helped narrow at least part of the margin.
Read 7 tweets
22 Feb
75-20 on Greenfield. I am missing an aye, will update when I figure that out. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
The yeas and nays there are correct, it is just that one of the blank ones are an aye. The other 4 didn't vote.
Updated: Blunt was the 75th Aye. Blackburn, Murray, Blunt, Toomey and Moran didn't vote. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 4 tweets
22 Feb
Hyde-Smith an Aye on Greenfield 👀
And Young is an aye. This will easily pass cloture.
And Johnson.
Read 9 tweets
22 Feb
Possible maybe the WH knows the nomination is going down anyhow? Though, if that is the case here then why not just pull the nomination.
To follow this logic though: maybe you leave her out to dry to help get Haaland through? If you can convince Sanders to back her out of committee, maybe you let it fail on the floor by however many votes to give Senators a chance to oppose someone to get room to back another?
So then Murkowski can say “I opposed one controversial Biden nominee in Tanden and then backed Haaland because Congressman Young supported her” or something to that effect?
Read 4 tweets
22 Feb
It would be pretty hard to justify anything other than a 4-3 Biden map (that was plausibly 4-3 Trump in 2016). The question may be: how far to the right of the state would the GOP demand the median district be?
Maybe a world where you hand then 3 safe R+>20 seats insulated from a big DFL wave and then make seat 4 a Biden +3 seat which would be R+4 compared to the state. A map that relativly favors the GOP vs statewide performance, though still roughly reflecting overall partisanship?
Inevitably, such a median seat would trend left if current trends continue, so the 4-3 GOP window could be limited, but yet enough for then to take it as a win?
Read 4 tweets

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