State spending spiked & then dipped after stimulus bill in last recession but returned to pre-recession growth, more dependent on federal support:…

New bill will provide more than $200 billion directly, plus $300 billion in local, education, & transit $
& Con:…
cases on state support.

With infrastructure bill coming, seems clear that states will be seeing a surge (especially relative to expected cuts last year) & will continue their increasing dependence on federal support.
Several states are still spending money from the prior COVID relief bill, often adding 1-time benefits. An additional $5-10 billion average per state is a large pot, especially if spent quickly. But I don’t see states or a coordinated liberal group agenda preparing for the influx

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More from @MattGrossmann

24 Dec 20
Both district policy opinion & symbolic ideology influence how lawmakers cast roll call votes; the operational-symbolic divide in public opinion explains why Republican lawmakers vote more inconsistently with district policy opinion
Democrats approve of their representative more when the member votes on bills in alignment with their policy preferences; Republicans approve more when they their representative votes in alignment with their ideology (even if their policy-specific views are unaligned). Image
Republican districts differ only a bit on policy preferences from Democratic districts but a lot on symbolic ideology. Republican representatives vote more in alignment with their district’s ideology, Democrats more in alignment with their district’s policy-specific preferences. Image
Read 4 tweets
27 Nov 20
Prez polls missed in 1948, 1952, 1980, 1996, 2000, & 2016 & we’ve had many repeated discussions: late movers, likely voter models, 3rd party overestimates, shy voters, sampling methods, absentees, undecideds, last-minute events, herding, misinterpretation…
Polling miss Recriminations have long been intertwined with academic skepticism & a long feud over journalistic vs social science descriptions of campaigns. The precursor to data journalism was “precision journalism,” an explicit call for integrating social science.
presidential elections have long been seen as the big (often failed) test for public social science. Blaming presentation of results & too much certainty & worrying about influencing results have long histories. But reporting has long suffered from the problems blamed on polls
Read 4 tweets
24 Nov 20
A strong US presidency is critical for addressing national concerns, but Trump & global populism highlighted deficiencies. Howell & Moe recommend expanding agenda power (fast-track for everything) while cutting pardons & insulating DOJ & intelligence.…
They pinpoint threats to governance in the contemporary Republican Party & compare Trump to global populists in message & behavior. But they also see federal policymaking as inherently ineffective (blaming Congressional response to interests & localities), stimulating populism.
I did not see much evidence that objectively poor governance stimulated Trump's victory & I do not think strong centralized liberal policymaking would diminish populist backlash; longstanding thermostatic trends in opinion & policy suggest it would likely increase it.
Read 5 tweets
11 Nov 20
Americans are using a bit more ideological language in explaining their party attachment over time, though the growth is mostly among Republicans; Democrats still use a lot more group benefits language
#polisciresearch automated coding of likes/dislikes…
Some of what is coded as "nature of the times" also looks like policy issue content, which might help reconcile this paper with Wattenberg's analysis:

This paper also only uses in-party likes.
You can see the common words in each category below.
Voter conceptualizations are surprisingly uncorrelated with our party messages data. Both Republican voters & politicians talk about ideology more & groups less (& Democrats the reverse) but partisans aren't responsive to year-to-year changes in rhetoric.
Read 4 tweets
5 Nov 20
Trump underperformed the national Republican House vote share in 2016 by 3 points. He may underperform Republican House candidates again this year. House Republicans also may gain share over Democrats vs. 2018. Trump-specific explanations should account for broader Rep success.
Republicans have won at least 18/27 of Cook House toss-ups (with Democrats leading in only 3) along with 4 lean Democratic races & 1 likely Democratic race:…
That sounds like even stronger poll overperformance than President or Senate.
Unclear whether House Democrats will blame Leadership for poor performance, whether anyone will challenge Pelosi, and how much value she’ll see in continuing.

See this prediction & comments in this thread:
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov 20
Reporters & activists spent a primary year portraying Democrats as moving left & embracing ideological politics. But Biden has run a decidedly non-ideological campaign. If he & moderate Senate candidates win, unclear why they would learn a different lesson than they normally do
Relative Dem underperformance with minorities might lead to calls for a return to more identity-based appeals. But high turnout could reduce perceptions of turnout/persuasion trade-off for moderation. Some Dem primary fights will continue but could be harder in Rep backlash years
In governance, Dems may encounter similar internal difficulties as 2009 (even with many of same issues, eg health & climate). But the left traditionally concedes if the alternative is passing nothing. It’s unclear why that changes now. & Red state Dems may get cautious quickly
Read 4 tweets

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