Thread by @ashishkjha

For 78 days in a row

the 7-day moving avg for number of daily deaths from COVID was above 2000

Over the weekend, it fell under 2,000 for first time in nearly 3 months

By next week, it'll be at 1500

And its falling a bit faster than I was expecting

Why?

Thread

First, predictions

By March 10, we should be under 1,000 daily deaths

By St. Patrick's Day, 750

And we could keep dropping

Amazing

Why?

Because infections are falling

But why faster than expected?

Two reasons

1. Hospital capacity easing

2/5

Overburdened, packed hospital means death rates rise

Opposite also true

As crowding burden eases, doctors, nurses have more time for each patient

Based on data, proportion of infected people dying weeks later is falling

This is good

And there is a 2nd reason to be optimistic

vaccinations

We are now entering a point where infections in nursing homes has fallen a ton

Because many got vaccinated in January

And given that NH residents are the highest risk of death

lower infection rates here starting to translate into fewer deaths

Infections nationally are down about 70% since peak

Deaths so far down 40%

But over time, I expect deaths to fall faster than cases

Because hospitals are getting less stressed

And vaccinations among high risk folks is rising -- and beginning to have an effect

5/6

So as we mark passing of 500,000 Americans

We now have tools to drive down deaths

We'll still lose thousands more Americans

And variants still loom

But if we vaccinate quickly and hold tight on policy

Horrible days of sustained 2000-3000 daily deaths could be behind us

End