So phenomenal news from today's testimony from J&J executives

They will ship 20M of these single-shot vaccines before end of March

Every calculation I've done assumed no J&J vax until April

Ah you say -- but don't I want Moderna/Pfizer? Aren't they better??

No

Thread
We will see more J&J data from FDA review this week but everything we've seen so far says these are excellent vaccines

Here's my @PostOpinions on why you should get any of the three you can get

2 of 3

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0…
and here's my conversation with @arishapiro on @npr about how J&J vaccine is getting a bad rap

Basic point is that these vaccines are terrific.

3/4

npr.org/sections/coron…
Headline efficacy #s aren't a fair comparison

J&J was tested in different places (SA, Brazil) at a different time than Pfizer/Moderna at a different time

And they all are essentially 100% at preventing hospitalizations/deaths once they've kicked in

4/5
So here's the real bottom line

For my family and friends, I'm telling them -- get any vaccine you can when its your turn

And everyone will have a turn soon

End

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More from @ashishkjha

23 Feb
For 78 days in a row

the 7-day moving avg for number of daily deaths from COVID was above 2000

Over the weekend, it fell under 2,000 for first time in nearly 3 months

By next week, it'll be at 1500

And its falling a bit faster than I was expecting

Why?

Thread
First, predictions

By March 10, we should be under 1,000 daily deaths

By St. Patrick's Day, 750

And we could keep dropping

Amazing

Why?

Because infections are falling

But why faster than expected?

Two reasons

1. Hospital capacity easing

2/5
Overburdened, packed hospital means death rates rise

Opposite also true

As crowding burden eases, doctors, nurses have more time for each patient

Based on data, proportion of infected people dying weeks later is falling

This is good

And there is a 2nd reason to be optimistic
Read 6 tweets
18 Feb
B.1.1.7 variant first seen in UK will be dominant by end of March

If we do our job, we can vaccinate everyone over 65 by then

And every teacher

And all school staff

A pipe dream? No – doable.

But hard

Lets look at some numbers to see why I'm optimistic

Thread
Right now, we have 26M people who have gotten only 1 dose

They need the second dose

How many folks >65 still haven't received any vaccine?

35 million

Even if we do a 1M first doses per say focused on seniors, it'll take us until late march to get 1 dose into all of them

2/9
We can get 2nd dose into about half (remember, have to wait 3-4 weeks between doses)

So we need 52M doses to get all remaining 35M seniors at least one dose and half their 2nd dose

What about teachers? 3.2M teachers in America

But schools have other staff too!

3/9
Read 8 tweets
15 Feb
Seeing stories of vaccinated folks getting COVID?

Yup. Not news

How common is this? Quick math says pretty common

Probably 60-100 fully vaccinated folks getting infected daily

So infections no surprise

We should instead focus on hospitalizations & deaths

Thread

h/t @jflier
Back of envelope math:

Over past month 4.2M have received both doses while 5.1M Americans have become infected

If you subject each fully vaccinated person to that day's daily infection risk:

We'd expect 8K-10K infections in that group if vaccines didn't work at all.

2/4
If vaccines offered 95% protection

We'd expect 500+ infections

Lots of hospitalizations

May be even some deaths

Headline news of a few infections expected

So what am I look for?

How many fully vaccinated folks end up hospitalized or dead from COVID

3/5
Read 5 tweets
9 Feb
About 3,000 Americans are dying every day

They reflect infections from mid-January

Given dropping infections since, we'll see dramatic drops in deaths over next few weeks

This is great

It'll also tempt policymakers to relax restrictions...just at riskiest moment

Thread
Current 7-day moving avg about 3000 deaths/day

In a week, that'll be down to 2500

2000 daily deaths a week later

And 1500 a week after that..3 weeks from now

Best guess based on infection numbers

Nearly 20K fewer deaths over next 3 wks than if infections had stayed flat

2/4
And if infections continue falling, we might even get under a 1000 deaths a day by Mid March!

Which would be amazing!

With one challenge:

Dropping deaths will put pressure on political leaders to substantially lift restrictions

Just as the variants will be taking off

3/4
Read 4 tweets
7 Feb
Am optimistic about late spring and summer

But concerned about next couple of months

So let's chat why

B117 – the UK variant

Its here and spreading quickly

Great new analysis by @k_g_andersen et al out today confirms as much

Its a problem

Thread

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
B117 is much more contagious – so it can quickly overwhelm a nation

Great write-up about Andersen piece and broader issues by @carlzimmer in @nytimes today

If you want to understand what this variant can do to a nation, let’s look at some data

2/8

nytimes.com/2021/02/07/hea…
First, let's look at pandemic in two nations:

Ireland (blue)

Germany (red)

Until mid-December, outbreaks had looked similar

Ireland had a spike in October did a lockdown, and got it under control

Germany rising in November, December with modest restrictions in place

3/8
Read 10 tweets
5 Feb
Feeling pessimistic about COVID & 2021?

Don't!

I'm not. Here's why

We'll likely have about 400M doses of Moderna/Pfizer by end of June

Enough to vaccinate 80% of adults

And that means a much better summer

Of course, we'll likely also have J&J, AZ, Novavax

Short thread
So by the time summer arrives, we'll have way more vaccines than people

Including for kids -- they'll likely get vaccinated over summer if not prior

That's supply. What about distribution?

Distribution problems were real in Dec/Jan

They are largely getting fixed

2/3
So I see no difficulties with us vaccinating 2-3M / day as we get into March/April. And vaccinated 150-200M by July 1

What could go wrong with scenario?

Pfizer/Moderna both suffer big production problems

AND

J&J, AZ, and Novavax don't deliver

Seems way, way unlikely

3/4
Read 4 tweets

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