Have tweeted this already but the fact that the pandemic has utterly slammed young people's prospects (pretty much exclusively) demands significantly more attention.
This is partly because they tend to work in the sectors that have been worst hit (all this via HMRC PAYE, via ONS)
Also an element of last in, first out. Also, as @CPSThinkTank warned, raising minimum wages - and therefore the cost of employment - during a youth employment crisis was a really bad idea cps.org.uk/research/the-c…
But given the scarring effects of recessions/youth unemployment, this is a problem that urgently needs attention - not least because everything in British politics is already set up to reward the elderly at the expense of the young (see: the planning system)
(This thread brought to you by my personal disgruntlement that this data was getting less attention on my timeline than a nice tweet about split infinitives)
(And yes, obviously we have all been suffering in many different ways, not least the people who have literally died. But in terms of the employment market, it's very clearly the young who are losing out.)
(One clarification: the NLW rise/extension hasn't actually come in yet. Was trying to say that the decision in Nov to increase it in April was a bad one. Apologies.)

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More from @rcolvile

21 Feb
Have written my column today about Starmer and That Speech, and in particular the positioning difficulty he finds himself in. Full thing here but quick thread below thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-s…
One of the weird things about Starmer is that he is actually more popular among Lib Dem supporters than Labour supporters, and has been so fairly consistently.
He's almost certainly more popular than Ed Davey too, given that pretty much no one knows who he is - haven't got the crosstabs by party but this from YouGov gives a flavour Image
Read 11 tweets
20 Feb
Fresh reports today that @RishiSunak wants to raise corporation tax, with the justification that even after it goes up we'll still have the lowest rate in the G7. But as @CPSThinkTank and our friends at @TaxFoundation have pointed out, this is deeply misleading.
Yes, the UK has the fourth-lowest corp tax rate in OECD - but we're 17th out of 36 in terms of overall corp tax, because we have massively stingy investment allowances (in fact, Osborne funded corp tax cuts by slashing them - robbing manufacturing Peter to pay services Paul).
.@TaxFoundation ran the numbers for us when they published their latest International Tax Competitiveness Index, and raising corporation tax from 19% to 24% drops our business tax regime down to 25th of 36 (@RishiSunak is reported to be targeting 23%) cps.org.uk/media/press-re…
Read 4 tweets
16 Feb
The vaccine passports debate is a perfect illustration of my new working theory: that the most important part of modern government, and its most important limitation, is database management. Please stick with me on this - it's much more interesting than it sounds. (1/?)
Throughout the pandemic, to a rough approximation, every single UK policy success has been built on a good database. And every single policy failure has resulted from a bad/nonexistent one.
The furlough scheme? PAYE. Expanding UC? The UC database (duh). The vaccine rollout? NHS patient records. All robust enough for use, and mostly already transferred to the cloud so could be accessed/expanded without too much stress.
Read 18 tweets
14 Feb
Because I love making myself popular, I’ve written my column today on why we need to stand up for the City thetimes.co.uk/article/the-ci…. A quick summary (1/?)
Even allowing for the impact of the financial crisis, and the Brexit vote, it’s pretty extraordinary how the City has moved from being central to our economic narrative to almost peripheral.
The Tories have barely mentioned financial services in recent years. Labour’s policy is essentially that brilliant Whitehouse/Enfield Question Time spoof: ‘If the bankers, the bonuses, the bankers, the bonuses, it’s disgusting.’
Read 9 tweets
19 Jan
However it ends, the row over Universal Credit tells us some incredibly depressing things about politics and policy in this country. A quick thread.
First, the constituency for fiscal discipline within the Tory party is at its smallest for decades. Anecdotally, MPs telling govt to stand firm vastly outnumbered by those saying 'make the emails stop'
Second, the ratchet effect is in full swing. The temporary always becomes permanent. It is always far harder to cut spending than to increase it. (Many of us saw this coming - I even predicted the Rashford endorsement - but you didn't exactly need to be Nostradamus...)
Read 12 tweets
24 Nov 20
Another day, another sloppy, bad-faith piece from the @Independent's 'chief business commentator' @JimMooreJourno on public sector pay independent.co.uk/independentpre…
When he first wrote about this, he failed to address the disparity between private sector and public sector pay at all, or the disparity in terms of the impact of the pandemic.
If you read what he says this time, the implication is that the public sector have suffered disproportionately. There's no other charitable interpretation of this section.
Read 9 tweets

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