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23 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
It's very interesting to see Grantham worry about declining working age population. I agree and have said under population is a much bigger threat than overpopulation. But very difficult to square that with his full blown malthusianism of the early 2010s.
His rants about phosphorus or whatever were just so strange
never forget

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More from @modestproposal1

modest proposal Profile picture
22 Feb
I have never understood the obsession over the taper tantrum

DB: "equity funds actually enjoyed inflows of over $300bn over the 12 months following the sharp rise in rates... Indeed 2013 saw the S&P 500 rise by 30% which remains the best calendar year for equities since 1997"
In 2019 Powell said "First the taper tantrum left scars on anybody who was working at the Fed at that time".

But why?
We know the tantrum led the Fed to reverse their order of operations on runoff versus hikes, which is a pretty big change

Read 5 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
18 Feb
from today's @stratechery:

"The first problem with the law is that, as I have repeatedly noted, it gets the flow of value exactly backwards. News orgs need Google and Facebook, not the other way around"
"they know better than anyone that Facebook provided nothing but economic upside for news orgs, and now that the company has said enough is enough they are facing plummeting traffic and revenues"
Meanwhile... “Few imagined” they wouldn’t give in to extortion. 🤦‍♂️
Read 5 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
18 Feb
"Meanwhile, very little of the traffic on Google or Facebook comes from news, and very little advertising appears next to news search results. Google didn't take their money, any more than Boeing took money from the ocean liners. The internet destroyed the model."
"You don’t have to ask the hypothetical “what would happen if Google and Facebook had less market power- would they pay for links?” You can just look at, well, every other site on the internet."
"One of the favored tactics of Murdoch’s shills is to accuse everyone that says schemes like this are ridiculous of being in the pocket of tech companies... let me say clearly as a truly independent analyst I think this regulation is absolutely ridiculous"
stratechery.com/2020/australia…
Read 7 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
16 Feb
Fed released the scenarios for 2021 CCAR. Here's the assumptions used for the Severely Adverse Scenario, which is the disaster porn.
Morgan Stanley summarizes the differences between the 2nd test done in late 2020. Modestly less severe economic assumptions in most cases, some harsher capital markets assumptions, net net slightly less punitive.
Bank Boards are set to have a level of discretion over capital returns not seen since before the GFC
Read 5 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
11 Feb
has anyone mustered even a half hearted attempt at rationalizing MSFT for PINS?
Meanwhile, yesterday @jack said: "We want to be a place that you can also use for recruiting, which we're seeing a lot of people coming together over interest and deciding that they want to work together"

Can you say synergy
Hi @jack!
Read 4 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
9 Feb
Have spent time thinking about and discussing the professionalization of supply on marketplaces, and how it seems an inevitability.

Can see capital really starting to pour into professionalizing Third Party sellers on Amazon now.

marketplacepulse.com/acquirers Image
Was interesting to go back and read the ILTB with CEO of Thrasio.

"It was like entrepreneurship in a box, and now suddenly they're having to do all this stuff, have this particularly expertise, and then it's getting very competitive"

joincolossus.com/episodes/28372… Image
Amazon had clearly already commodotized supply just given their dominance of ecommerce demand, but still interesting to see it take shape as expected, with smaller suppliers losing out over time in marketplaces

Read 6 tweets

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