Thread by @jam_croissant

1/x Here we are right back@the 1 stdev down of the 20 day. It hasn’t closed below YET, so the bullish trend is hanging by a thread. Its do or die time@ a critical inflection point, so prepare for a big ‘ol game of🐔once again.The🪟of weakness is still open, & just like last month

2/x it’s gonna take a kick save to escape the clutches of the 🐻’s. But to be abundantly clear, if a sell off is to occur before 3/15 it must close below that level today. Historically, Fri into Mon @ this point of the cycle are dangerous animals & should not be trusted, so don’t

3/x be a hero, until later in the day if/when we seem to get the all clear. Word has gotten out to Vanna that Gary is in trouble & arrangements have been made for her to call in for the US open for a brief moment before hopping on her ✈️ ride home. She lands around 2pm CST. This

4/x could take the ES back above the our ***3854.25 briefly, but gamma is 👑 today. Be prepared for a potential whipsaw back to lower levels once Vanna is on the plane & Gary is left alone. If we can stay w/in striking distance of our 1 stdev down or >by 2pmCST, prepare for a rip

5/x That could blast is off back to ATH’s. If our level breaks meaningfully though early, get out of the way, as the market has a fat left tail & could run all the way to <3750 without a bounce going into the weekend. Gary is unhinged @ this point & is more of a liability than

6/x anything for the Wheel of Fortune, as fixed strike straddle were up >$28 across the board. & post 2/26, his situation could get worse w/or w/out vanna, if things spin out of control & the zookeepers don’t feed him the next 2 days. That said w/Ivols juiced there is significant

7/x potential energy for a thrust higher when Vanna is @ work. Although rates were the narrative driver of the decline yesterday & to some extent also effected increased flows out of equities from Risk Parity, i am less worried about this b/c if things get shaky midday look for

8/x the Fed to trot a governor out to carefully place a few words to help Vanna out. My bigger concerns are 2 fold: 1/watch the ARKK doomsday machine for continued potential unraveling & it’s ripple effects across the NDX complex into a sell off 2/watch the overly bullish Retail

9/x sentiment, in the form of Equity Put/Call, which is desperately in need of a reset & is an even bigger driver of negative Vanna/Charm flows across the momo equity complex than rates IMO. This is desperately in need of a wash out... That said, time is on the side of the bulls

10/x and if we can make it to 2pm CST unscathed DON’T FIGHT THE TREASURY... w/ 1)new $1400 stimy checks hitting retail bank accounts again in early Mar & 2)increased narratives surrounding a likely coming huge BBB infrastructure plan reveal @ the coming SOTU all while 3) we’re

11/x likely to see an accelerated spring reopening... this coming run could be something to behold, particularly in certain pockets of the market... but the steep rally will likely be relatively short lived, for by the time the infrastructure bill begins to find traction, 1)Taxes

12/x will come due in mid April, 2) it will be time to realize LTGains from last March’s buying... & maybe most importantly 3) the economy should begin to reopen, diverting precious $$$ & attention from retail equity demand back to the real economy while 4)pushing yields up &

13/x & diverting even more $$$ from equities over to bonds...as TINA ever so slightly begins to unwind....that one could very well get ugly, as the old SELL IN MAY & GO AWAY adage, LIVES UP TO ITS REPUTATION. Watch retail sentiment closely, as well as ARKK stress, Keep your head

14/x on a swivel into a rate driven sell off for a Fed statement that could quickly turn the tide. Ultimately, as is usually the case, time is on the side of the bulls... But the🪟continues to be open for potential for continued weakness & it is still a time for caution until 2pm

15/x We continue to buy cheap downside convexity funded w/ local Vol & long TSLA ARKK collars for convexity, which served us exceedingly well yesterday, for a few more hours on this important last day of the🪟.

16/16 eyeing an opportunity to potentially catch the next nuclear 🚀 to the 🌙 , if/ we don’t get a meaningful break down past the 1 stddev down. YOLO. Good luck!!! 🍀