Question: am I correct that @JosepBorrellF's briefing this week was the first time the EU has formally said that containment is one of the main goals of its Russia policy? That word drives the Kremlin crazy.
Putin's comments in a speech at FSB today are a case in point 1/
Putin speech earlier today: "We are confronting a policy of containment of Russia. We're talking about an aggressive policy aimed at slowing our [economic] development, creating problems along our borders & provoking internal instability..." 2/
Putin (cont'd): "In the end, it's aimed at weakening Russia and subjugating us [once again] to the control of foreign powers." 3/
The Russian leadership's paranoia about foreign-led plots and the threat of color revolutions and neo-containment is hardly new news. And it's plenty self-serving in terms of fostering "besieged fortress" and rally round the flag sentiment that consolidates support for Putin. 4/
But we should not take false comfort that this part of the Kremlin's belief system is pure fantasy. It's not. To the contrary, it is deeply engrained and impactful on actual regime behavior both inside and outside Russia. 5/
Putin's comments are part of the ongoing dog whistle campaign that anyone who acts against the regime is acting at the behest of foreign enemies of Russia. 6/
As my colleague @baunov explained recently, such talk may sound totally ludicrous in the West, but it is potentially a very effective tool against #Navalny and anyone who is tempted to engage in street protests or other forms of unsanctioned political activity 7/
Here's a link to Baunov's very insightful piece "Why the Kremlin’s Anti-Navalny Strategy Just Might Work" carnegie.ru/commentary/838… END
ADDENDUM: Interesting reply to my thread from
@bdtaylor_SU: "The Russian Foreign Ministry now uses the word "containment" to describe its strategy toward the United States. 2 recent examples from Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov in the next tweet." 👇

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More from @andrewsweiss

17 Feb
What does the Kremlin think #Navalny's weak points are and how does that inform its current pressure campaign? Fascinating piece by @baunov. Quick thread 1/
carnegie.ru/commentary/838…
Baunov points out the effectiveness of the Kremlin's ongoing effort to disparage Navalny as a tool of Western intelligence services bent on provoking a street revolution. "This [claim] may sound preposterous, but it will resonate with certain segments of the public." 2/
Well-publicized state-sponsored violence and forced video confessions may shock people in the West, but they're also a deliberate attempt to make Russians think twice about the higher cost the regime will make them to pay for engaging in unsanctioned political activity. 3/
Read 8 tweets
26 Jan
Don't let the hoopla over first Biden-Putin phone call overshadow the fact that White House is underlining the fact of Russian interference in the 2020 presidential election (not/not 2016) 1/ whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
The Kremlin, relying on a network led by a known Russian intelligence agent named Andrii Derkach, successfully mounted an influence operation to tilt the outcome of the election by spreading false information about @JoeBiden and his family. 2/
That operation (outlined here: home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…) didn't rely on the sexy online and social media tools seen in 2016 but it successfully ensnared Donald Trump, @RudyGiuliani, @DonaldJTrumpJr, and many parts of the pro-GOP media apparatus. 3/
Read 4 tweets
25 Jan
How were the #Navalny demonstrations across Russia on Saturday different from past waves of mass protest? @Baunov breaks it down and challenges some of the wishful thinking that is now in circulation.
For example: @Baunov says the protest was less about supporting Navalny personally and more about public anger "about the Kremlin's lawlessness and the usurpation of power of allowing President Vladimir Putin to effectively remain in the job for life"
The make-up of the demonstrations is also important: "the most militant protesters didn’t look like the typical supporters of pro-democracy protests...[they mostly] work in the service sector or office jobs and are [people] dissatisfied with their jobs, salaries, and prospects"
Read 5 tweets
14 Jan
Are we listening enough to average Russians? Nope! Thread on @CarnegieRussia-@levada_ru focus groups on political change, enduring appeal of paternalism, "strong hand," govt control over economy, wealth redistribution 1/ carnegie.ru/2021/01/14/how… @AndrKolesnikov/D.Volkov/A.Levinson
Anger over official corruption was a constant theme. But not necessarily in the way you'd expect -- eg the desire for Chinese-style solutions and "Stalinist methods" among tradition-minded participants. 2/
These folks support Putin's foreign policy, no questions asked. But they want the government to pivot to addressing domestic ills laid bare by the pandemic. 3/
Read 5 tweets
22 Nov 20
1/ Surely a coincidence that Putin is asked at the 22:30 mark of today’s interview whether the US election result is actually legitimate.
2/ “The legitimacy or illegitimacy of the authorities is first of all up to the Americans themselves”
3/ “[The legitimacy] of the election is an extremely important thing because upon that depends the trust of the people on both sides [of political system] toward their leadership.”
Read 6 tweets
9 Nov 20
1/ The Kremlin’s anti-Biden subtweeting continues apace: Russian electoral commission head Pamfilova explains (once again) why US vote-by-mail system is irreparably flawed and rife with fraud...
2/ ... to prove her assertions are grounded in, uh, truthfulness she cites US election expert Greg Butterfield.
3/...it took me a few minutes to figure out she was taking about this fellow: he’s an NY-based far left/sextant activist who contributes to something called Struggle-La Lucha and whose Twitter handle is “[at]redguard1971” google.com/amp/s/www.stru…
Read 5 tweets

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