I'm worried. It strikes me that if ERG, Foster, Gove and Frost stick to their current approach (demanding NI Protocol abolished or Art 16 triggered) *and* the work to do the required checks in NI from 1 April doesn't happen... it's a matter of time before UK Govt triggers Art 16
It won't happen before end of April, because triggering it before the European Parliament has even ratified the TCA is too dangerous (even for the political geniuses in 70 Whitehall), but once that's done... what's going to stop them?
Labour wants Brexit problems to go away. It's not going to mount a defence of the NI Protocol nor demand the work on the ground gets done
So discontent will grow, accusations of bad faith will be flung at the EU - with no-one UK side to balance them
Sure, behind the scenes the Biden administration will caution against it. Some Tories, notably @Simon4NDorset, will urge caution. But the debate (if indeed debate is the right word) about this currently strikes me as dangerously skewed
I hope I am wrong. I hope the few voices there are in the UK willing to speak up for the GFA and for making the NI Protocol work, and for the UK actually doing what it has committed to do under the NI Protocol and TCA are heard more. But I can't shake my worry
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It's the sheer brazenness of the Gove (backed by Foster) approach to "grace periods", & asking for them to continue until 2023...
As if it's self evident that UK is not going to be ready anytime soon... to do what it agreed to do when it signed TCA just 2 months ago!
Really, what has *changed*?
Unionists *that the 2020 WA and NI Protocol sold down the river* are annoyed? Consider me shocked.
That the EU actually thinks what's in a Treaty ought to be complied with? Can't be having that!
Or that vdL's faux pas on Article 16 and vaccines means the EU now has to change its approach to the texts it has agreed with the EU? Come on, that's not serious
Conclusion from the complete absence of reaction to this - on Twitter and directly on my blog - is that serious pieces like this on UK-EU relations, if not written by a think tank, now just sink without trace
Maybe I should pitch things like this to an organisation like @UKandEU - but then editorial processes and timetables come into play, but I guess I need to stomach that
And I am pretty sure I am not the right sort of person to work for a think tank, and founding my own makes no sense (we don't need more EU think tanks anyway)
Frost replacing Gove to front 🇬🇧 Govt's relations with 🇪🇺 has provoked a lot of debate about leadership, accountability and coordination of #Brexit in Whitehall
But similar questions need urgent answers 🇪🇺 side too
A quick thread about Provisional Application of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA)
When the TCA was agreed, the text stated that the Provisional Application would apply until 28 February, but this was not long enough for the EU - and the EU wanted to extend
The *Proposal* for a Council Decision that would then set the negotiation mandate was made public by the European Commission on 10 February - you can find the PDF here
Only once that Council Decision is adopted can the EU then request that the UK agrees the extension of Provisional Application at the EU-UK Partnership Council (the TCA stipulates that the Partnership Council can extend Provisional Application)
Corbyn would be a better leader of the opposition than Starmer right now
He dislikes what the Tories do and how they behave and would actually *oppose*
Starmer is instead contorting himself by trying to tell people what he thinks they want to hear
I’m no Corbynista. He was a poor politician in many ways in my view, and Labour is better off with him being gone. His inability to deal with antisemitism in the party is reason enough it’s better he’s gone
*But* on UK politics Corbyn knew what he wanted, and knew where his ethics were
On Hancock behaving unlawfully he’d demand Hancock resign
He’d tear into the supposedly pro-business Tories for a Brexit Deal that kills small businesses