Today in why context matters...
The initial jobless claims data out this morning points to what some are calling a "sharp fall" in weekly claims.
Claims last week were 3.5x what they were a year ago. The 4-week moving average was almost 4x.
The initial jobless claims data out this morning points to what some are calling a "sharp fall" in weekly claims.
Claims last week were 3.5x what they were a year ago. The 4-week moving average was almost 4x.
And that doesn't include special programs set up in response to the pandemic that the latest data show covering >12m of the >19m in the US claiming or receiving unemployment benefits.
Another bit of context: 19m is the population of New York state.
Another bit of context: 19m is the population of New York state.
Another bit of context:
The decline was largely due to the extreme weather that hit a large swathe of the US last week, as @joebrusuelas points out here: realeconomy.rsmus.com/initial-jobles…
The decline was largely due to the extreme weather that hit a large swathe of the US last week, as @joebrusuelas points out here: realeconomy.rsmus.com/initial-jobles…
And, as @GregDaco points out, the trend is basically flat rather than down... Plus regular claims can be a misleading metric to track in a pandemic.
https://twitter.com/GregDaco/status/1364946317517152264
@GregDaco I find this @joebrusuelas chart haunting. How long will it be before the number of people filing new claims for regular unemployment gets back to the pre-pandemic average?
A year from now will we be looking at 300k per week as the new average?
A year from now will we be looking at 300k per week as the new average?
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