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Faisal Islam Profile picture
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25 Feb, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Following the confirmation hearing of the US Trade Rep Katherine Tai ... no mention of doing new trade deals in her opening statement: ustr.gov/about-us/polic…
Asked about whether US would get into TPP Tai did not make it sound a priority saying that 2021 is not 2015/16
NEW Biden’s US Trade Rep designate Tai says she would want to “review” US and UK trade talks in light of UKs deals with EU and new post pandemic economic situation... suggests the original objectives might be reviewed. Doesn’t sound quick.
The other UK leaning point - when asked about the Airbus-Boeing dispute, Tai did talk about finding a place to land on this issue - though with the EU. UK did attempt to settle this separately in final weeks of Trump admin by unilaterally lifting tariffs on Boeing

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More from @faisalislam

Faisal Islam Profile picture
26 Feb
Understand Chancellor & PM met yesterday on subject of Freeports ahead of Budget

Applicants expecting announcement at next week’s Budget, after relatively quick process.

Locations to get tax breaks on biz rates, capital allowances, NI, as well as operating before customs border
Around two to three dozen applicants from ports (sea and air) were received by the deadline this month. Govt want to get them going this year.

Not mainly a Brexit thing (indeed one of the most famous examples is the art/ wine storehouse in Luxembourg, which HMT don’t want to do)
The other issue is displacement - will these facilities merely shift production within the country from non free ports. As Tees Mayor Houchen just told Nick, they have to be concentrated in specific product areas.

This issue will weigh heavily tho , particularly re rejected bids
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
25 Feb
New numbers on furlough released - in January up to 4.7m from 4m. Also though evidence of a rather different second wave lockdown than last April... (peak 9m) gov.uk/government/sta…
This shows the pattern of which workers by sector are on furlough now and aren’t now versus were in first lockdown...

Significant increase in past month in retail/ wholesale, but half levels of last April... construction, manufacturing use of furlough have not gone up in Jan
On the link at the top there are some v interesting breakdowns by region, company size, gender (more women furloughed) and age... but this is very interesting - the 1m rise in furlough this year, 2nd lockdown has been in full furlough, not part time/ flexible furlough:
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
19 Feb
G7 conference call chaired by PM - with President Biden and new Italian PM Mario Draghi - all looks rather different to last one... as usual EU there repped by VDL and Michel, in addition to the “7”.
G7 leaders promise to “build back better for all” and commits to “levelling up our economies so that no geographic region or person, irrespective of gender or ethnicity, is left behind”.. and support Tokyo Olympics as a symbol of post Covid global unity

g7uk.org/joint-statemen…
Also G7 promises to:
-strengthen WHO, fund Covax $7.5bn
- explore global health treaty
-‘continue to support our economies to protect jobs/recovery’ (NB no mention of public finances)
-debt relief for pandemic afflicted poorer countries
-net zero by 2050
- digital tax by mid 2021
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
19 Feb
Public finances show first January deficit for a decade - £8.8bn vs £10bn surplus last Jan.

tax receipts held up far more strongly than might be expected... self assessment income actually up on last Jan - mainly a spending thing - vaccines, furlough

ons.gov.uk/economy/govern…
spending on eg procurement of vaccines, PPE etc - was up £8bn on last Jan, job support schemes £5bn up.

Interest payments more than half what they were last January - £1.8bn vs £3.9bn

EU contribution “0.0” - £2.1bn less than last Jan

“0.3bn” estimate on tariff income
Good point - they haven’t yet decided how to account for the ‘divorce bill’... also doesn’t appear to have been any payments for ongoing participation in EU schemes - though there should be some...
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
18 Feb
The Starmer economic speech is important moment for macro policy...
With new administration in US “going big” on fiscal stimulus, borrowing rates remaining super-low - Opposition could choose to lean further in same direction, marking break with post financial crisis...
Govt clearly already has “gone big” in past 12 months in terms of COVID rescue, but there will be an inevitable debate within Govt about just how quickly to apply the breaks to borrowing in rest of Parliament. Treasury argues existing infrastructure plans already were going “big”
So does Starmer “go bigger” than Govt, given significant G7 reflation efforts? Even with no election for years, such argument would affect dynamics of Downing St debate and in turn on length of toleration of high deficits, and so timing of tax rises, end of support policies etc..
Read 10 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
14 Feb
PM interviewed on US network this morning - stressing cooperation on climate change with President Biden
PM pressed on adhering to NI Protocol in US... “you bet”
Really quite an interesting interview from PM re green ambitions says UK is going to make a “big bet” on hydrogen as well as becoming the “Saudi Arabia of wind”... full transcript here... cbsnews.com/news/transcrip… Image
Read 6 tweets

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