We finally have a full analysis on an economic/ecological perspective on the natural origin of #SARS_CoV_2 right before Dec 2019. With agricultural economist Wei Xia, @blJOg @robertson_lab To share it early we put it as a preprint: preprints.org/manuscript/202… 1/n
The spillover of a virus from one host species to another requires both molecular and ecological risk factors to align. 2/n
While extensive research both before and after the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 implicates horseshoe bat as the significant reservoir genus for the new coronavirus, it remains unclear why it emerged at this time. 3/n
One massive disruption to human-animal contact in 2019 is linked to the on-going African swine fever virus (ASFV) pandemic. This began in Georgia in 2007 and was introduced to China in 2018. Pork is the major meat source in the Chinese diet. 4/n
Severe fluctuations in the pork market prior to December 2019, may have increased the transmission of zoonotic pathogens, including severe acute respiratory syndrome–related coronaviruses, from wildlife to humans, wildlife to livestock and non-local animals to local animals. 5/n
The major production and consumption regions for pork are geographically separated in China. 6/n
The dramatic shortage of pork following restrictions of pig movement and culling resulted in price increases, leading to alternative meat consumption and unusual animal and meat movements nationwide such as wildlife and thus greatly increased opportunities for virus contacts. 7/n
Pork prices were particularly high in southern provinces (Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, and Hubei), where wildlife is farmed on different scales and more frequently consumed. 8/n
Shandong experienced the biggest losses in pork production (~2 million metric tons), which is also the largest mink farming province. 9/n
Hence, exposure of SARS-CoV-2 from wildlife or infected animals to humans by contact and consumption are more likely to have taken place in 2019, a year when China was experiencing the worst effects of the ASFV pandemic. 10/n
There are more details in the PDF version of the manuscript if you are interested in the natural origin of #SARSCoV2 from an socio-economic, ecological and evolutionary perspective. 11/n

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More from @john_jxw

24 Feb
My group has a fully funded #phdscholarship (Worldwide, University of Liverpool PhD programme) working with me on cancer evolution at Suzhou (XJTLU). The project will look at cancer genomic/clinical data by extending an existing evolutionary framework (DOI:10.1098/rsob.190297) 1
We have a multidisciplinary supervisory team to help: Dr. Jason Parsons (Cancer clinical scientist), Dr. Pascal Grange (Mathematician/Theoretical physicist), Dr. Jia Meng (Bioinformatician). Please PM me for more details. 2
Here is the admission details and project summary: xjtlu.edu.cn/assets/files/a… To Know about Suzhou @VisitSuzhou
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华南农业大学、岭南现代农业科学与技术广东省实验室沈永义教授、肖立华教授等科研人员联合中国人民解放军军事科学院军事医学研究院杨瑞馥研究员及广州动物园科研部陈武高级兽医师开展的最新研究表明,穿山甲为新型冠状病毒潜在中间宿主。这一最新发现将对新型冠状病毒的源头防控具有重大意义 #nCoV2019
The latest research conducted by South China Agricultural University, Lingnan Modern Agricultural Science and Technology Guangdong Provincial Laboratory, Professor Shen Yongyi, and Professor Xiao Lihua, 1/3
together with Researcher Yang Ruiyu from the Military Medical Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences and Chen Wu Senior Veterinarian of the Guangzhou Zoo Research Department, 2/3
Read 11 tweets
22 Jan 20
We are sharing our initial analysis of the new #Wuhan #coronavirus (with @robertson_lab): #nCoV’s relationship to bat coronaviruses & recombination signals. Full analysis is here on virological: virological.org/t/ncovs-relati… @MackayIM @FluTrackers @HelenBranswell @Laurie_Garrett
@robertson_lab @MackayIM @FluTrackers @HelenBranswell @Laurie_Garrett Focus of our analysis is on the Wuhan-Hu-1 virus (accession no. MN908947, released on GenBank by Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center and School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China) as all nCoV cluster together so will share the same evolutionary ancestry. 1/n
@robertson_lab @MackayIM @FluTrackers @HelenBranswell @Laurie_Garrett It’s clear from phylogenetic analysis the new human virus is most closely related to bat coronaviruses in the Betacoronaviruses genera. 2/n
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