3 new states (HI, ND, NJ) have been added to the total, all showing decreases from 2020. I added Cook County IL (oct-dec) to the list and removed Howard, IN, though its in final calculations. To keep the list down, I have to sacrifice small for big.
1/ At this point, my scan has captured almost 87M person-years, about 1/5th of the US. Because it is a nonrandom sample, it can't yet be used to estimate, however, the skew is on and clear - no major increases in 2020, most states and counties showing decreases.
2/ There are no surprises at this point - we are seeing clear and consistent trends across the nation.
It is with fairly high confidence that I repeat:
"The data does not support an increase in suicides in the US during 2020, in fact, if anything, it supports a decrease."
I was able to access a data set from a Cook County, Illinois. Cook County is home to 5.2M people and includes Chicago.
It's the 2nd largest county in the US
/cont
1/ In total, there were 438 suicides in 2020 in Cook County, compared to an average of about 480 in the past 3 years. During the pandemic spikes, suicides decreased.
All in all, it was a below-average year for suicide deaths.
2/ Black residents died by suicide at a much higher rate (42% increase). This increase was occurring before the pandemic as well. During the first wave of the pandemic, it worsened, second wave it lessened.
A much higher year for Black suicides: 97 vs. an average of 68 in 5y.
Friday Update for Suicidology Data/News regarding 2020:
We have new data on Oregon has layers of detail. Suicides overall in 2020 were down 10.6%, from 910 in 2019 to 820.
(recommend you assume Nov goes up a slight amount, dec a little bit more, and Jan significantly)
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Importantly, more evidence to the pile that the reporting on suicide presentations to the ER are MISQUOTED and MISATTRIBUTED. It is generally not true that presentations are up (both nationally and at state level data).
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Here, suicide presentations to the ER dropped off and overall were lower than 2019, but not as severely as visits for other reasons, making the *proportion of visits higher*. So it is not true in Oregon that "presentations for suicide were up".
Let's make sure we don't pretend that we will solve the problem of youth suicide by "getting back to normal."
We will all need to continue to focus, on a national level, to our children's wellbeing and work to remove stresses, barriers, stigmas, and structural inequalities.
As any person who works with kids in an emergency department, mental health centre, crisis call centre, or psychology/psychiatry department will tell you, school and its surrounding stressors are a MAJOR CAUSE of youth distress.
3 new jurisdictions are in:
* NJ (decreased 16.5%)
* HI (decreased 26.8% April-Dec)
* Franklin County, OH (decreased 6.1% Jan-Sep)
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Due to lag, the "-11%" number is probably more like -4%. Interesting to note, this matches very well with the @CDCgov Jan-July report, which shows that suicides are about 4.6% fewer in 2020.
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What these data are not:
NOT A PREDICTION:
* other states or counties
* 2021
* other parts of the world
What these data are:
A REPORT:
* the counties and states reported
* everything that has been reported
* for the time ranges reported!
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Using a quick example of how sensational numbers in headlines can paint an incomplete picture. In Franklin County, Ohio, Suicides are overall down in 2020, but the article portrays something different for youth:
Of course, the headline is not incorrect, but there is a larger context to provide. Using the data provided, I'm plotting the youth (8y-25y) suicide rate next to the adult+ suicide rate.
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As the headline states, there is an increase in 2020 vs 2019. However, 2019 also saw a substantial decrease, and just 4 years prior, 2017 saw an even greater increase from the previous year.