Let's make sure we don't pretend that we will solve the problem of youth suicide by "getting back to normal."
We will all need to continue to focus, on a national level, to our children's wellbeing and work to remove stresses, barriers, stigmas, and structural inequalities.
As any person who works with kids in an emergency department, mental health centre, crisis call centre, or psychology/psychiatry department will tell you, school and its surrounding stressors are a MAJOR CAUSE of youth distress.
((and yes, the pattern is only seen in kids))
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Friday Update for Suicidology Data/News regarding 2020:
We have new data on Oregon has layers of detail. Suicides overall in 2020 were down 10.6%, from 910 in 2019 to 820.
(recommend you assume Nov goes up a slight amount, dec a little bit more, and Jan significantly)
/1
Importantly, more evidence to the pile that the reporting on suicide presentations to the ER are MISQUOTED and MISATTRIBUTED. It is generally not true that presentations are up (both nationally and at state level data).
/2
Here, suicide presentations to the ER dropped off and overall were lower than 2019, but not as severely as visits for other reasons, making the *proportion of visits higher*. So it is not true in Oregon that "presentations for suicide were up".
3 new jurisdictions are in:
* NJ (decreased 16.5%)
* HI (decreased 26.8% April-Dec)
* Franklin County, OH (decreased 6.1% Jan-Sep)
/1
Due to lag, the "-11%" number is probably more like -4%. Interesting to note, this matches very well with the @CDCgov Jan-July report, which shows that suicides are about 4.6% fewer in 2020.
/2
What these data are not:
NOT A PREDICTION:
* other states or counties
* 2021
* other parts of the world
What these data are:
A REPORT:
* the counties and states reported
* everything that has been reported
* for the time ranges reported!
/3
Using a quick example of how sensational numbers in headlines can paint an incomplete picture. In Franklin County, Ohio, Suicides are overall down in 2020, but the article portrays something different for youth:
Of course, the headline is not incorrect, but there is a larger context to provide. Using the data provided, I'm plotting the youth (8y-25y) suicide rate next to the adult+ suicide rate.
/2
As the headline states, there is an increase in 2020 vs 2019. However, 2019 also saw a substantial decrease, and just 4 years prior, 2017 saw an even greater increase from the previous year.
"Frequently Asked Questions" about the data I post regarding suicides in 2020 not changing overall from 2019. Due to the number of requests/questions I get, I will stop answering them personally if they are listed here.
FAQ 1:
What about "attempts?"
* numbers of attempts are not necessarily related to deaths numbers of death suicide (by far, most who attempt do not end up dying by suicide); overall, attempts are down in emergency departments (But the proportion of presentations is up)
FAQ 2:
What about "Deaths of Despair"
I hate the term.
"Despair" (what this ugly lumping calls "worsening socioeconomics") affects ALL DEATHS. It's honestly NOT OK and IGNORANT about social effects on health to use this term to separate suicide, overdose, and alcoholism.
2) Obviously, this is quite an increase. 41% in a year is significant and concerning. It is in very different from North America, which have so far have not shown a youth increase. (Similarly, suicides in Japanese women skyrocketed whereas no change in North America/Europe)
/2
It's important to note that this number has been increasing sharply for a while, this is definitely amplified however.
Every nation so far that has reported its suicide rates for 2020, compared to previous years. No change since 2019 (but down from 2017).
Despite a global pandemic, no current evidence suggests a 2020 rise in suicides.
2/ There are VERY IMPORTANT NOTES to this data. If you do not understand these notes, you will not understand this data, and you should not analyse it AT ALL except "there is no evidence to suggest an increase in suicides in 2020." That's it for you!
3/ First, it is crucial to not compare between nations, because different agencies, reporting structures, and cultural factors will influence reported suicide rates. Malawi's 1.4/100k is not comparable to Canada's 12.3/100k. At all. Don't do it.