Thread by @OphirGottlieb

1/n

$FTCH

* Revenue: $540M (+64%) vs $515.77M estimates
* EPS: -0.06 vs -0.13

2/n

$FTCH

Next Year Guidance

* Digital Platform GMV of $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion, representing growth of 30% to 35% year-over-year

* Adjusted EBITDA margin of 1% to 2%

🚨🚨🚨This would mean positive EPS vs -$0.62 estimates

3/n

$FTCH

Full Year Analysts had +35% forecasts

Company guides GMV to be $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion, representing growth of 30% to 35% year-over-year

4/n

$FTCH

Q1 Guidance

* Digital Platform GMV of $740 million to $770 million, representing growth of 50% to 55% year-over-year

* Analysts had revenue growth estimates of +32%

5/n

$FTCH @farfetch

This wording for full year 2021:
"Adjusted EBITDA margin of 1% to 2%"

Is a massive beat to estimates of full year adjusted EPS -$0.62

6/n

$FTCH @farfetch

2020
* GMV Exceeds $3 billion, up 49% YoY
* Revenue +64% YoY

Q4
* GMV and Digital Platform GMV growth - up 43% and 49% YoY, respectively, to record highs of $1.1B and $939M, respectively

7/n

$FTCH

* First ever quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA; $10M up from -$18M in Q4 2019

* 2021 is first ever full year guidance for positive Adjusted EBITDA

Based on $SHOP $ETSY $FTCH results, which all obliterated estimates, institutions are not ingesting the numbers as though they are representative of the future.

The stocks are being treated as if this was a one-time event.

Time will tell, but this is what is going on, IMHO.

9/n

$FTCH

* While ‘Group’ GMV was up 48.9%, ‘Group’ adjusted revenue was up 63.6%

* While ‘Digital Platform’ GMV was up 41.7%, ‘Digital Platform’ adjusted revenue was up 47.3%

If we look at all of 2020 we get an an adjusted EBITDA margin improvement from -14% to -3%.

10/10

$FTCH

[..] and we now have guidance that for full year 2021 that number will be positive 1% – 2%.

Long stock
Long calls
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