Thread by @OphirGottlieb

1/n

$ROKU

Total net revenue grew 58% YoY to $1,778 million;
Platform revenue increased 71% YoY to $1,268 million;
Gross profit was up 63% YoY to $808 million;
Roku added 14.3 million incremental active accounts in 2020 to reach 51.2 million at year end;

2/n

$ROKU

Streaming hours increased by 20.9 billion hours YoY to a record 58.7 billion;

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) increased $5.62 YoY to $28.76 (trailing 12-month basis);

In 2020, 38% of all smart TVs sold in the U.S. were Roku TV models

3/n

$ROKU

$ROKU

* Rev: $649.9M vs. $606M

4/n

$ROKU

* EPS $0.49 vs $(0.05) Estimate
* Sales $649.89M Beat $617.70M Estimate

Guidance
* Sales ~$485M vs $463M Estimate
* Gross Profit $238M, Adj. EBITDA $31M

Roku Q4 Active Accounts 51.2M, Up 39% Year Over Year, Streaming Hours 17B, Up 55% YoY

5/n

$ROKU

Similar to Q3, in Q4 usage of The Roku Channel grew nearly twice as fast as our overall platform and reached U.S. households with an estimated 63 million people, up more than 100% year-over-year.

6/n

$ROKU

" In 2020, we grew ARPU by $5.62 year-over-year to $28.76 (trailing 12-month basis). ARPU growth was driven by increased per-user engagement, as well as our continued investments in our channel distribution, content promotions, billing and advertising capabilities."

7/n

$ROKU

"In 2020, Roku TV was the top-selling smart TV OS in Canada, where Roku had 31% market share."

8/n

$ROKU

Metrics

9/n

$ROKU

10/n

$ROKU

"Our users streamed 17 billion hours in Q4, and over 58 billion hours in 2020 overall. Both periods grew 55% year- over-year."

11/n

$ROKU

The Roku Channel

"We added more than 50 linear channels in Q4, and in June launched our Live TV Streaming Channel Guide to help users more easily discover content across more than 175 linear streaming channels."

12/n

$ROKU

ARPU

"In 2020, we grew ARPU by $5.62 year-over-year to $28.76 (TTM). ARPU growth was driven by increased per-user engagement, as well as our continued investments in our channel distribution, content promotions, billing and advertising capabilities."

13/n

$ROKU

I do not see a full year 2021 guide and that is what's holding the stock from rising or falling significantly.

14/n

$ROKU

"The level of uncertainty compounds when trying to assess the net impact of a variety of factors such as the timing of the vaccine rollouts, emergence of new COVID-19 variants as well as the lasting economic impacts of the pandemic."

15/n

$ROKU

"Consequently, instead of providing a formal outlook for the full year, we will provide some directional perspective."

16/n

$ROKU

🚨🚨🚨

Guiding to *positive* adj EPS for Q1 vs estimates of -$0.34

17/n

$ROKU

Wrt guidance:

"[] for the full year, our overall year-over-year revenue growth will fall below levels we expect to see in the first and second quarters of 2021."

18/n

$ROKU

OK, I did the math quickly:

Next Q Guidance:

EPS: $0.13 vs estimates of -$0.34

(positive vs negative)

Math for this Q:
(31/113.5)*.49

19/n

$ROKU

And btw, Roku's adjusted EBIDTA for 2020 was up 650% vs 2019.

20/n

$ROKU

My calcs:

The Roku Channel reached U.S. households with an estimated 63 million people up from 43 million two quarters ago and 54 million last quarter.

21/n

$ROKU

More back of the envelope math:

Roku reported video advertising grew more than 100% year-over-year in the fourth quarter.

This outpaced the 50% year-over-year growth reported in the second quarter and 90% in the third quarter.

22/n

$ROKU

For full year 2020, I see on the cash flow statement:

The company delivered $148.2 million in cash from operations.

This is while delivering 58% revenue growth.