Post-lockdown rebound of infectious diseases:

RSV is back in Australia with a vengeance - current cases in red below, usual incidence in black

Note that #RSV is far more dangerous to infants & young children than #covid19

academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
To get a sense of #RSV vs. #covid19 in children:

In the UK:

- #RSV : usually kills 28-79 children per year

- #covid19 : a total of 7 children had died in paediatric intensive care up to November 2020

RSV data: jech.bmj.com/content/59/7/5…
covid19 data: picanet.org.uk/covid-19/
Post-lockdown rebound of #RSV will also harm adults, especially older adults:

RSV usually causes ~10,000 deaths per year among US adults aged >65

RSV in nursing homes has a fatality risk of 2-5%

Imagine if incidence doubles, as it has in Australia?

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Like many viruses, #RSV doesn't just affect the lungs, it can cause heart damage (myocarditis) and "multisystem inflammatory syndromes" (extrapulmonary manifestations)

Luckily, like for #covid19, these are uncommon - and should not cause general panic

ccforum.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
Like many viruses,

- #RSV immunity is not lifelong, but immunity protects people for months or years, & reinfections are less severe

- #RSV mutates, and there are many variants/strains out there

See interesting article below

academic.oup.com/jid/article/20…
Another estimate of usual #RSV morbidity & mortality in UK children:

29,160 hospitalisations and 83 deaths per average season

The longer schools and society remain closed, the bigger the rebound will be, harming infants, children, & older adults

bmjopen.bmj.com/content/6/6/e0…

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More from @ID_ethics

23 Feb
Article title: coronavirus immunity is "short-lasting"

Article figure: median time to re-infection ~ 2.5 years

(Median = black vertical line below)

Most people would be happy with >2 years to reinfection, especially with reduced clinical severity...

nature.com/articles/s4159…
The above is an example of how scientists and journal editors could better communicate findings and risks

The widespread and baseless fears that there would not be immunity to #covid19 could have been reduced, rather than increased, by more careful reporting of the same data
From the same study:

~50% of people infected with endemic coronaviruses still have higher levels of antibodies after 4 years

No reason to think that #covid19 would be wildly different

(antibodies don't necessarily = clinical protection, but still good data)
Read 5 tweets
26 Jan
Terminology thread:

rate ≠ risk
infection ≠ disease
quarantine ≠ isolation
social distancing ≠ physical distancing
prolonged PCR positivity ≠ shedding
virulence ≠ transmissibility

References to follow
1/ rate ≠ risk

A risk is a probability of a harm (of a given magnitude)

A rate is something that varies over time

journals.lww.com/epidem/Fulltex…
2.1/ infection ≠ disease

Many infections are asymptomatic or even beneficial!

An infectious disease only occurs when the host-pathogen interaction results in harm (i.e., a harmful disturbance of normal host function)

link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Read 10 tweets

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