Thread by @ISAGCOVID19

New @IrishTimes poll:

- 67 % of people believe current restrictions are appropriate or insufficient

- 54 % of people favor a cautious school reopening

- 94 % believe travel should be banned or quarantine enforced

- Misleading question on #ZeroCovid

irishtimes.com/news/politics/…

The #ZeroCovid question was false comparison of 3 X options:

1. Normality once elderly & vulnerable vaccinated (68 %)
2. #ZeroCovid (30 %)
3. Don't know (2 %)

Option 1 is not the Government plan, and is not credible because widespread vaccination is required for normality.

#ZeroCovid enables much greater normality except travel until widespread vaccination. Then we return to normality plus travel.

The alternative option to #ZeroCovid is not normality once elderly & vulnerable are vaccinated. The alternative to #ZeroCovid is rolling lockdowns.

A #ZeroCovid style strategy has three components:

- Crush (the curve)
- Contain (new cases in quarantine)
- Chase (new outbreaks exhaustively)

What is public support for each component?

Crush:
A #ZeroCovid strategy, means cases low enough to be manageable.

When asked, 86 % of people believe we shouldn't open at more than 100 cases per day.

60 % believe we should open at less than 20 cases per day.

This is support for lockdown.

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1360752105078861824?s=20

Contain:
A ZeroCovid style strategy requires mandatory hotel quarantine for all arrivals. All polls show about 90 % of people want this, including the above from @IrishTimes and below from @ireland_thinks

https://twitter.com/ireland_thinks/status/1351113333857005572?s=20

Chase:
To 'manage' cases we need public health physicians to be supported by test/trace/isolate.

There are no clear polls on this at present.

However, public confidence is weak on Government ability in pandemic management:

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1360750133709799428?s=20

In a @thejournal_ie poll, with a clear question:

Poll: Should Ireland adopt a Zero-Covid strategy?

55 % of respondents said 'yes'.

https://twitter.com/WeCanBeZero/status/1362401931457683458?s=20

When asked "Would you support another 3 months of Level 5 restrictions if this was to be Ireland's last lockdown?'

77% of the public said 'Yes'

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1354032782247395329?s=20

The actual text of the new Government plan entitled "COVID-19 Resilience and Recovery 2021 - The Path Ahead" is here:

gov.ie/en/publication…

The plan notes that:

"The disease is difficult to control if not aggressively and proactively suppressed"

"We have also learned that it is extremely difficult to maintain incidence at moderate levels."

These are not compatible with normality after elderly are vaccianted.

The Government also notes "Of the small number of close contact interactions that are occurring, most take place in workplaces with a minority occurring during home visits."

- a way of enhancing the speed of this lockdown?

And today, the NPHET letter

"says eliminating the virus or reaching herd immunity from vaccination alone is unlikely. And that the virus is likely to be in circulation for future years."

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1364949701225775108

NPHET support cautious reopening, travel quarantine, and successful lockdown.

assets.gov.ie/124697/0e98d26…

In conclusion, when due, detailed, and honest consideration is given by the media then it becomes clear that the public, NPHET, and the Government all have positions that are firmly in line with a #ZeroCovid strategy.

#WeCanBeZero

https://twitter.com/WeCanBeZero/status/1364303807769935874?s=20