Schnable makes strong case for monetary-fiscal coordination.
public sector 'insensitive to low policy rates', giving Euroarea a fiscally restrained stance that further weakened monetary policy
why? fear of market tensions and public debt sustainability.
she wont say coordination, but ' policy response to the pandemic is a remarkable showcase for the power of monetary and fiscal policy interaction to boost confidence'
jaja, brilliant Eurozone language games time: unconventional fiscal policy!!!!
we heterodox economists call it Keynesian fiscal policy, but ECB Board Members have a contractual clause forbidding them to pronounce that word
clever to have the German Board Member put pressure on European Commission/Member States to revise fiscal rules because they force austerity pro-cyclically
spectacular speech @Isabel_Schnabel - makes case for fiscal/mon coordination within monetary dominance framework
'... institutional framework that creates the tools and the space for fiscal policy to support the efforts of the central bank when inflation is below its aim'
we still in world of shadow monetary financing, but it's become more nuanced.
central bankers now recognise the loop: fiscal activism necessary in crisis to support monetary, but wont occur unless central banks support sovereign borrowing costs
yesterday, Vera Songwe of UN's Economic Commission for Africa called for Biden Administration to support a G20 SDR reallocation to low-income African countries
now that the S/B duo and other New Keynesians worry about pent-up demand, excess savings & inflation
I am reminded of similar debate, won by 'excess savings' crowd, with disastrous consequences in formerly planned economies.
it's 1989, the Berlin Wall is shaking, and IMF economists + theoreticians of centrally planned economies need to come up with a plan of what exactly transition macroeconomics should look like.
IMF and Disequilibrium School agreed: planned economies were 'chronic excess demand economies'
why? monetary overhang = the socialist worker couldnt spend her income because of chronic shortages and rationing.
pent up demand would explode into hyperinflation if left unchecked
In my evidence to @LordsEconCom, I argued that QE has fiscal spillovers that are poorly theorised & understood.
Reliance on QE alone created a massive failure of fiscal-monetary governance in 2010.
Good to see @guardian editorial warn against repeating that mistake post-pandemia
Bank of England's Internal Evaluation Office noted that the Bank should understand better the monetary-fiscal linkages created by QE.
I would go further, and argue that this gap affects:
a) transparency of QE
b) effectiveness of QE
c) design of fiscal measures
d) unwind of QE
a) Is QE transparent?
NO, if transparency = communicating clearly and effectively reasoning behind quantitative targets
two reasons: no theoretical tools to arrive at precise number, and no explicit consideration of 'monetary-fiscal linkages'
now for the exciting session on monetary populism on Hungary from Julia Kiraly, ex deputy governor of MNB (Hungary central bank):
my friends from the left and right, be careful!
oh, someone has read my work on Eastern European carry-trades.
Hungarian monetary populism: central banking subordinated to politics, that is divorced from economic thinking, but subservient to Orban oligarchs (!!!!!)
chief economist of the Slovakian central bank in conversation with @BJMbraun:
'there is nothing progressive about dismantling central bank independence and subjecting it to the will of the people' #nextgencentralbanking
reminded me of famous Mervyn King quote:
'central banks are often accused of being obsessed with inflation. This is untrue. If they are obsessed with anything, it is with fiscal policy'
Luis Garicano (EP): if @Isabel_Schnabel arguments wins the day and @ecb corrects market mispricing of climate risk, what next?
should ECB correct housing market imperfections? social/poverty imperfections?