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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
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26 Feb, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Following are all true:

1. There's zero chance of rejoin inside at least 6 years
2. EEA membership/alignment is clearly in UKs interest
3. Referendum needed before rejoin possible
4. No party will risk fighting an election with referedum as policy any time soon

Which leaves....
And then next..

5. EU will insist on align/"trusted relationship" prior to rejoin
6. Many Remain voters dont want 2nd referendum now
7. Referendum not needed for steps before rejoin
8. Culture war on align is less obvious than on rejoin which shows Brexit publicly as "a failure"
3/
Once you get these 8 points..it becomes clear what the route should...indeed, can only be.
4/
..the final piece:

a) The benefits of EEA/Align are 90% of actual EU membership
b) ...But the political risk/cost of going for a referendum/Rejoin is far higher than for going for just EEA/Align
c) EEA/Align is a required prequisite of Rejoin

So if you really want rejoin...

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More from @nicktolhurst

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
25 Feb
British supermarkets & producers increasingly “de-Europeanising” foods for post-Brexit UK.

So for example “Petits Pois” (a term much of the world uses regardless of where they come from) has now become “British fancy peas” with Union flag.
2/
Remember “Brussel Sprouts”?

Those were the bad old days..now we have freedom loving, flag waving “British Sprouts”.
3/
And don’t worry if you’re not just anti European...but also “Celt-sceptical”..

...you can now enjoy a Haggis in the safety of your home without a worry or even a thought about Scotland with the “Great British Haggis”..
Read 5 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
23 Feb
The British royal family were never really under serious threat from the left.

Most liberals & “do-gooding” lefties are suckers for people who look like they’re trying to make the world a bit better place.

It’s the right wing & nihilistic media that’ll destroy them in the end.
2/
I think as well, many non royalists will be surprised what happens when the Queen passes on.

She is such a cultural & social icon theres likely to be the same effect as when a country loses a chunk of itself - which of course could literally happen at the same time as well.
3/
The Queen passing on the same time as Scotland leaving the union is likely to concentrate minds in 🇦🇺🇨🇦🇳🇿 where the Generation that associates the “shared monarchy” with the war & the “British-heavy” migration of the pre-1970s will have faded into insignificance.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
22 Feb
This is a very curious tweet by the BBC.
To those who know financial sector this is a normal figure for registrations.
It doesn't mean what BBC language is implying.
Nobody expects the City to suddenly collapse - if it did the country would effectively be broke overnight.
2/
The intention of this @BBCNews tweet was to cloud/decieve rather than explain.
The use of phrase "'set to open UK offices'" implies in most peoples minds something other than is likely to be the case in all but a minority of cases.

Its almost disinformation.
3/
By "opening up a 1 000 offices" could quite easily refer to a thousand companies registered to a single address.

In fact after losing several trillion worth of business to Amsterdam this BBC tweet attempts to hide this behind a dodgy stat that most people wont understand..
Read 5 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
22 Feb
+UPDATE+

Stanley Johnson - the Prime Minister’s father - has had multiple discussions with Chinese state officials on behalf of his son incl. at Chinese embassy at ambassador level & above.

UK officials increasingly concerned Boris is running an “off-books” diplomatic policy.
2/
This “off-books” diplomacy with the Chinese government via the Johnson family goes back “over a year”.
3/
While some media comment has leaked out over the last year or so - most of the reporting - via FT or Guardian for example - has been careful or alternatively played on Stanley’s humorous image.

In fact this action is strictly prohibited precisely because of risks it entails.
Read 9 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
21 Feb
+UPDATE+

Civil Service increasingly despairing of "Johnson's ability to focus on everyday govt" as he floats ever more stranger ideas - the latest a "giant roundabout under Isle of Man to connect UK countries via interconnecting tunnels" - as part of his "patriotic Union" plan.
2/
Story starting to (partially) seep out now..

thetimes.co.uk/article/tunnel…
3/
Civil service increasingly told to present information in "short easily understandable answers" and to research ever ever more fantastical ideas & "notions" the Prime Minister throws at them at short notice.
Read 9 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
19 Feb
It’s one thing to select guests with a particular bias - it’s bad practice but not uncommon..

...but making this non journalist who simply made up stuff on TV as your political correspondent is signalling that GB News has dispensed with even the lowest of journalistic norms.
2/
There was some talk that the GB News / FOX News comparison was overblown but it should be remembered that many Fox News staff do have a background in genuine journalism.

Tom Harwood is just a political operative who was shown up time & time again for simply making stuff up.
3/
The decision to make Harwood the political correspondent is thus confirmation GB News won’t be run as merely a conservative minded media channel which you could make a case for - but as an anti-journalism outlet for Vote Leave.

Not just Brexit.....but “journalistic-exit”.
Read 4 tweets

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