ANECDOTE ALERT: Kindergarten on my block was back for just one day when a teacher tested positive for Covid, putting 14 kids into quarantine. Of them, 7 have now tested positive. The B.1.1.7 lineage is no joke.
Teachers were offered priority access to coronavirus vaccines, but many delayed. This teacher had received her first dose a few days prior. She had mild symptoms but delayed getting a test.
Luckily, most of the parents were vaccinated earlier, so they will have significant protection. But the virus can spread in the home to other kids.
B.1.1.7 is the British variant, for those asking.
I'm still confident the vaccines will win the race against the coronavirus in Israel. But the few weeks while the vaccines take the time to kick in can be risky.
By the way, I'm not against opening schools when incidence is low and mitigations are in place, and where teachers act responsibly. But the British variant does change the balance of calculation, and some things that were safe in July aren't safe now.
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More evidence on vaccines and coronavirus transmission: Analysis of data from Israel's surveillance testing programme for care home workers suggests that the Pfizer vaccine cuts positive PCR tests by 88% (76%-92%) among 8,300 vaccinated workers compared to 2600 unvaxxed.
The care workers are actively tested, regardless of vaccine status, as part of Israel's programme to reduce care home infections. The analysis was restricted to workers who work in care homes whose residents were vaccinated centrally, to try and control for workplace exposure.
The analysis notes that other factors could be in play, for example care home workers who are unvaccinated might generally be people who behave more in more risky ways.
New data Pfizer vaccine effectiveness from Israel in the @NEJM in most comprehensive study so far of of 600k vaccinated people 7+ days from second dose:
92% against infection (88-95%)
94% against symptomatic Covid (87-98%)
92% against severe disease (75-100%)
No death stat? Well, the 1.2 million people in this study (600k vaccinated, 600k control) isn't enough to give a meaningful effectiveness against death from Covid, because only one of the 600k vaccinated people died 7+ days after the second dose.
These are really excellent numbers, albeit not the eye-popping effectiveness figures published by Israel's Health Ministry this week. One of the authors of the @NJEM study, @RanBalicer, previously suggested that the Health Ministry numbers were flawed.
A study by Public Health England finds that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is 72% effective at preventing ALL coronavirus infection (including asymptomatic) 21 days after first dose, and 86% effective 7 days after second dose.
Also some evidence that people who've recovered from Covid-19 are as protected, or more protected, against coronavirus infection as vaccinated people. All really good news for the vaccines' ability to slash transmission and end the pandemic.
There are lots of people out there who just aren't very scared of Covid, and they aren't going to suddenly become scared of it now. Presenting vaccines (accurately) as the path to reopening is probably better.
Yet more good news on the Pfizer vaccine, showing even higher effectiveness 14 days after 2nd dose. Effectiveness:
95.8% at preventing infection
98% at preventing symptoms
98.9% at preventing hospitalisations
99.2% at stopping serious disease
98.9% at preventing death
This new data from Israel's Health Ministry, published a few minutes ago, is SO good that I'm actually a little suspicious of it. Could be a function of the short dosing interval giving a few weeks of very high antibodies?
Alternatively, there could be some herd effects starting to happen in mostly-vaccinated populations compared to towns with low numbers of vaccinated people.