Policies of central bankers and govts. are inflationary (in intention), while demographic trends are deflationary
We seem to be getting the worst of both of these worlds now, both depression and also rapidly rising prices - similar to 1970s
But in our time we cannot expect that inflation - or any other salient fact - will be publicly acknowledged as a problem (officially it's still low), as it was then
I have a strong feeling that the deflationary trends, being YUGE macro trends will eventually win out
The increase of money supply via QE and the induced scarcity of supply chain disruptions and lack of domestic productive capacities led to the most striking inflationary trend that I can recall seeing, and since those conditions aren't going away, this trend seems persistent
Demographic trends do continue to favor deflation strongly, the West's labor inputs are negative without mass immigration as birth rates have cratered (as they have all over the world save in Africa), and these trends are also being accelerated in "new normal"
The next 1-2 decades looks very volatile with this Hybrid of Doom (simultaneous inflation and deflation trends). No government is really well positioned to handle such an explosive situation, even as the current policies are intentionally inflicting economic damage
A reduction of population has been discussed by the Elites since the 1970s Club of Rome work at least, but no easy means was found for that, so finally the solution of economic catastrophe was found, but I could see this situation spiraling beyond their ability to control too
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Only a few systems have potential to be Hegemon in our time - arguably US, China, Russia, EU
But really, all have srs. systemic problems -- most prominently the prospect of persistent debt & demographics driven deflation and depression
The possibility of a systemic failure is there, long predicted and now does not look so far fetched at all (arguably Russia least likely to collapse having had the exp. already)
If any of these were to fail, you would likely see a post-Soviet scenario emerge in that area...
There was a good 10 years where the term "neofeudal" would not be a bad description of the post-Soviet world order in Russia (see Kotkin's Armageddon Averted for example)
Arguably on the cultural end of things we are nearing the Dark Age already, if not already in it...
Central banker cartel in USA was created due to a real or perceived need to curb the volatility of 19th cent. Anglo Capitalism (numerous crashes & deflations from 19C to early 20C)
Yet with decades of experience now behind us, the cure appears to be worse than the disease ...
The Fed's policy of easy money via QE has "wealth effect" enriched everyone connected to the Finance-Insurance-Real Estate rackets in the USA, while at the same time causing inflationary pressures that now make life unaffordable for the remainder of the populace not so connected
Central banker myopia is not limited to the USA but is equally a trouble in China, for example -- while here we have the "wealth effect" due to asset bubbles, there the State Owned Enterprises are given YUGE sums to build unoccupied Ghost Cities, their version of the same thing
If America was a Socialist country since 1933 ( Stalin-admirer FDR New Deal as American NatSoc program ), how does Capitalist mythology persist to our day
Note that public screwl historical ed. was scaled back in many parts of US by the time Boomers were kids - could be related
And I think because of the Cold War experience being so central to the identity of so many Boomers, that this perspective of "Capitalist triumph over Marxist expansion" will last as long as they do. If it was formative part of identity, unlikely they get rid of it late in life
In this case I'm not even attacking the Boomers, merely noting that there are reasons why we can't have an honest assessment of the last century
Even when GenX and MilGen get Socialism they think they want, it will not be recognized as almost (or over) a century old here
Spengler very "content dense" writer of the 20th cent. hence the continued interest even after his "academic unpersoning for crimethink"
One controversial claim was Spain, England, Germany as major movers of West via world historical ideas (Ultramontanism, Capitalism, Socialism)
Part of a Gothic / Nordicist / Germanicist take on history as he felt the Med had been overplayed, and wanted to be a contrarian toward his obvious influence Nietzsche
But does this one hold up?
1/ Scandinavia, basically invented Unitarian Church-State - is important no?
...
2/ the Franks, no impact here? Really? Everything from feudal warlordism, to proto-Soviet peasant communism, to much of the high cultural output of north-of-the-Alps Europe? Sheeiit.
3/ the Italians, both parochial communalists and progenitors of high culture others copied
Spengler emphasized the conflict between the English and German worldviews, the final showdown between Capitalism and "Prussian Socialism" - of course he thought latter would win
Had an interesting take on Marxism: "capitalism for the working man" -- an Anglo Trojan Horse
But Marxism became the outward philosophy of Socialism everywhere in the 20th cent.,
And while the "Prussian Socialist" model of the managerial state came to be adopted everywhere, either nominally Capitalist or Socialist,
Ideal of "ethical Socialism" did not appear anywhere
Perhaps it was not foreseen how useful the "Prussian" model would be to the Anglo world in managing the ongoing crises of their own economic system, and also underestimated was the corrosive effect on ethics that the two World Wars would have on the West as a whole
Reading travel lit over time it seems that the last time things were relatively "normal" is 1970s or so - this genre gives good intel on avg ppl at different periods. Though '70s was an age of dark cynicism, feel is Western Civ still at peak (versus now w. obvious troubles)
The travelers seem to interact with people not yet fully in ideology or technology induced hazes. America seems to retain a certain regional character, versus now when the global era has made the world a smaller and more homogenized place, & the pre-digital era is slower/calmer
Blue Highways, the author does an epic road trip across America to all of its different regions and sees a full cross-section of its types. Of all the people that are encountered, not many match the ideology-ghettoized humanity of today, except, what a surprise, college kids