1/ Six months ago, I launched MBI Deep Dives. I publish one deep dive of a publicly listed company every month for $10/month or $100/yr.
Subscribers receive only one/two email each month, and each deep dive is ~8-10k worded piece.
Here's how it went. A thread.
2/ After 6 months, I have 589 paid subs. Although I started in September last year, I started monetizing from November 15, 2020.
I am glad with how things have gone so far, but of course, what happens after 60 months is much more important than 6 months.
3/ I will be the first to admit that MBI Deep Dives has been greatly benefited by the bull market.
I have no clue what will happen to stock price in 3-6 months, but price action probably played a role in convincing at least some to subscribe to my work.
4/ What was surprising in the last 6 months was subs was not stacked in just few days here and there.
It is, strangely, a very steady stream of 3-4 subs almost every day. This makes me hopeful that there is still a long tail of potential subs out there who want to read my work.
5/ If it were just stacked 30-40 subs on some days and hardly anything on other days, I would be more worried and feel pressured to write more frequently.
Perhaps writing more frequently would lead to more subs, but it would also likely affect the quality of my work.
6/ These six months convinced me that if (a big if) I am a good analyst, there will be thousands of people who would want to read my work.
I don't know whether I am a good analyst/investor, nor can I claim myself based on short-term performance or return during bull market.
7/It will probably take years and multiple market cycles for most of you to evaluate whether all of these have been just fluke or I really do have what it takes to be a good analyst.
8/ Because there is such a delayed feedback loop, I encourage people to subscribe if they want to learn about interesting companies along the way, and decide for themselves whether they share my bullish or bearish sentiment on a particular company.
9/ Since I manage my own money and invest based on my own deep dives, I do have skin in the game.
I do not say this lightly, but I feel a deep sense of gratitude to fintwit community. I owe it to this community and I will try my absolute best to be a good analyst.
"we roughly achieved our 2023 aspirations in 2020"
Etsy grew 2.5x as fast as e-commerce, and it is now 4th largest e-commerce site by monthly visit.
3/ Etsy is not just an US story now; the pace of international growth and domestic GMS in those markets highlight not only cross-border network effects in play, but also Etsy itself has become a potent international brand.
I wrote a deep dive on Copart this month. I love the company and management (you'll see why in these notes), but less of a fan of the industry and valuation.
Here are my notes.
2/8 For the second consecutive quarter, volume is down 13%, but offset by ASPs which is up by +35%, significantly outpacing overall industry.
Dealer business +10% when overall industry was down
3/8 Revenue +7.3%
Gross margin +49.8%, up 160 bps
Operating margin improved by ~500 bps
Capex for the quarter $136.1 Mn, 85% of which is growth capex
As I reflect today, I realize I will probably never be as confident about the world as I was in my early 20s. The hubris of early 20s, thankfully, faded away.
2/4 Individually, we all are suffering from n=1 problem, n being the number of lives we can have. The best solution to this problem is vicarious learning.
Liddell Hart said, “There is no excuse for anyone who is not illiterate if he is less than three thousand years old in mind”
3/4 Or consider what Niall Ferguson said, “The dead outnumber the living fourteen to one, and we ignore the accumulated experience of such a huge majority of mankind at our peril.”
Hopefully, by the time my 30s ends, I will gain at least a few hundred years of wisdom vicariously