1/ Six months ago, I launched MBI Deep Dives. I publish one deep dive of a publicly listed company every month for $10/month or $100/yr.

Subscribers receive only one/two email each month, and each deep dive is ~8-10k worded piece.

Here's how it went. A thread.
2/ After 6 months, I have 589 paid subs. Although I started in September last year, I started monetizing from November 15, 2020.

I am glad with how things have gone so far, but of course, what happens after 60 months is much more important than 6 months. ImageImage
3/ I will be the first to admit that MBI Deep Dives has been greatly benefited by the bull market.

I have no clue what will happen to stock price in 3-6 months, but price action probably played a role in convincing at least some to subscribe to my work. Image
4/ What was surprising in the last 6 months was subs was not stacked in just few days here and there.

It is, strangely, a very steady stream of 3-4 subs almost every day. This makes me hopeful that there is still a long tail of potential subs out there who want to read my work.
5/ If it were just stacked 30-40 subs on some days and hardly anything on other days, I would be more worried and feel pressured to write more frequently.

Perhaps writing more frequently would lead to more subs, but it would also likely affect the quality of my work.
6/ These six months convinced me that if (a big if) I am a good analyst, there will be thousands of people who would want to read my work.

I don't know whether I am a good analyst/investor, nor can I claim myself based on short-term performance or return during bull market.
7/It will probably take years and multiple market cycles for most of you to evaluate whether all of these have been just fluke or I really do have what it takes to be a good analyst.
8/ Because there is such a delayed feedback loop, I encourage people to subscribe if they want to learn about interesting companies along the way, and decide for themselves whether they share my bullish or bearish sentiment on a particular company.
9/ Since I manage my own money and invest based on my own deep dives, I do have skin in the game.

I do not say this lightly, but I feel a deep sense of gratitude to fintwit community. I owe it to this community and I will try my absolute best to be a good analyst.
End/ If this is something that intrigues you, you can subscribe here: mbi-deepdives.com/plans/subscrib…

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More from @borrowed_ideas

26 Feb
1/ Thread: $ETSY 4Q'20 Earnings Update

By now, it's widely recognized how good Etsy is, so the debate is centered around valuation. I'll comment on that, but first here are my notes.

Disclosure: $ETSY is a major core holding of mine (~20% weight).
2/ GMS in 2020: $10.3 Bn growing +106%
Revenue $1.7 Bn growing +111%

"we roughly achieved our 2023 aspirations in 2020"

Etsy grew 2.5x as fast as e-commerce, and it is now 4th largest e-commerce site by monthly visit.
3/ Etsy is not just an US story now; the pace of international growth and domestic GMS in those markets highlight not only cross-border network effects in play, but also Etsy itself has become a potent international brand.
Read 15 tweets
25 Feb
1/ Thread: $ANSS 4Q'20 Earnings Update

Ansys just had a fantastic Q4, but provided a relatively soft 2021 guidance. Stock's down 9%.

Another reminder that past has little relevance, and it's the future that drives any stock.

Here are my notes.
2/ Revenue growth in Q4 was +28%. That's very impressive, especially because it was relatively tough comp. 4Q'19 revenue itself was +18% YoY.

Operating margin in Q4 improved by ~350 bps.
3/ Thanks to Q4 momentum, ACV ended up +11% this year. 83% of ACV was recurring vs 78% last year.

"Looking long term, we believe that the pandemic may actually cause our total addressable market to go faster than our pre-pandemic projections"
Read 7 tweets
23 Feb
1/8 Thread: $CPRT FY 2Q'21 Earnings Call Notes

I wrote a deep dive on Copart this month. I love the company and management (you'll see why in these notes), but less of a fan of the industry and valuation.

Here are my notes.
2/8 For the second consecutive quarter, volume is down 13%, but offset by ASPs which is up by +35%, significantly outpacing overall industry.

Dealer business +10% when overall industry was down
3/8 Revenue +7.3%
Gross margin +49.8%, up 160 bps
Operating margin improved by ~500 bps
Capex for the quarter $136.1 Mn, 85% of which is growth capex
Read 8 tweets
11 Feb
1/ Thread: $UBER 4Q'20 Update

"If a stock doubles on you and you thought it was expensive 50% lower, nine times out of ten its time to learn something."- @JerryCap

I passed on $UBER at $34/share, and it's been +85% since then.

Here are my notes from Q4 earnings call.
2/ Total gross bookings -4% YoY, but +16% QoQ.
Revenue -15% YoY, but +13% QoQ

Take rates down 221 bps YoY, primarily because mix shift to delivery which is lower take rates business

Strong conviction of reaching adj EBITDA profitability sometime in 2021.
3/ Mobility

Mobility appears to be improving in January; Brazil is at ~90% of last year's bookings.

Airport travel is the real laggard here, currently indexed at 27% of last year's bookings.

Expects WFH to continue, but travel to come back strongly this.
Read 12 tweets
10 Feb
1/4 I am 30 today.

As I reflect today, I realize I will probably never be as confident about the world as I was in my early 20s. The hubris of early 20s, thankfully, faded away.
2/4 Individually, we all are suffering from n=1 problem, n being the number of lives we can have. The best solution to this problem is vicarious learning.

Liddell Hart said, “There is no excuse for anyone who is not illiterate if he is less than three thousand years old in mind”
3/4 Or consider what Niall Ferguson said, “The dead outnumber the living fourteen to one, and we ignore the accumulated experience of such a huge majority of mankind at our peril.”

Hopefully, by the time my 30s ends, I will gain at least a few hundred years of wisdom vicariously
Read 4 tweets
5 Feb
1/ Thread: Notes from $IAC+ $ANGI Earnings call 4Q'20

Lots of interesting data points related to Vimeo on this call. Continued conviction on fixed price at ANGI+ real excitement about Dotdash.

Here are my notes.
2/ Let's start with Vimeo.

$IAC owns 88% of Vimeo. 1 IAC share = ~1.6 Vimeo share

"TAM is every professional, every team, every organization in the world who now needs to use video to reach their customers"

70% of Fortune 500 companies use Vimeo. Total enterprise customers <4k
3/ 60% paying subs start as free first, and 60% of enterprise customers come from free or self-serve base. Most enterprise customers are SMBs.

Recent partnership with $SHOP, $GDDY, $HUBS, Mailchimp

Net revenue retention increased for 7 consecutive quarters.
Read 10 tweets

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