~30 million have had COVID
~50 million have received at least 1 dose of vaccine
~70 million are children; not eligible for vaccine.
After considering some overlap in 3 groups: ~140 million to go to get 80% of eligible population immune
With J & J approval, this goal is achievable within 3-4 months.
Things then will be remarkably good considering how good the vaccines are in preventing deaths & hospitalizations. It will relieve the huge stress many frontline health care workers have endured for the last year.
I'll be watching and posting the cost of Melflufen and CAR-T
Myeloma treatment is often continuous. Myeloma patients even with insurance can have substantial co-pays. Middle class patients who don't qualify for very low income assistance programs are affected a lot.
For more on the high cost of prescription drugs, especially cancer drugs and what we need to do about it, please check out this article. nature.com/articles/s4140…
In randomized trials with 6 different COVID vaccines involving ~175000 persons:
0 hospitalizations for COVID in persons who received the recommended schedule of vaccine.
That is ZERO.
Astra Zeneca Oxford
Pfizer
Moderna
Novovax
Sputnik V
J & J
Source: I read each FDA guidance document for Pfizer, Moderna, and J & J. The @TheLancet papers for Astra Zeneca (most recent) and Sputnik V. And press release for Novovax interim analysis.
If you don't believe this, and the data from randomized trials and other real world data we already have, then your aren't gonna believe.
This is why I'm confident that vaccines will get us back to normalcy.
This is why I don't this March will be terrible.
This is why I think we can be near normal by summer as proportion of people who have been vaccinated and those with prior COVID inches close to herd immunity
Mutants or not this is what's happening. Update. #COVID
What we can control: Vaccines
What we can't control: Mutants
(Except through Vaccines).
Same story in Israel where more than half the country has received at least 1 dose of vaccine. And real world data show marked protection from vaccines.
This is pretty good sustained reduction since my earlier tweet from over 2 weeks ago.
While relaxations on masks & lockdowns led to increased deaths in Europe & USA, we don't see this in India even though I think similar relaxations occurred. Next month is critical.
There is worry about new cases increasing in Maharashtra. Hope this is controlled with some changes to policy and by expanding vaccinations quickly.
Deaths may lag behind the rise in cases and that's why I think we will need another month to assess the severity of the recent increase in cases over the last 10 days. news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…