Thread by @AndrewWattEU

How much does the EU and how much does each member state have to do to achieve the agreed vaccination target (70% of the adult population fully vaccinated by 21st September)?
A short thread 👇, first the results then some discussion of the calulations.

💉🇪🇺
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Starting with the EU, the graph shows that in the 205 days left, a tad over 0.5% of the (total) population needs to get a jab every day. The current rate is a little under 0.2 per day. This implies a needed acceleration by a factor of around 2.7 (right-hand scale).
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Comparing countries, Malta is an outlier, barely needing to accelerate at all (by 4%), whereas Belgium must raise its recent poor performance more than four-and-a-half times. 21 countries need to at least double the rate at which jabs are administered to meet the target.
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The 3 largest MS, DE, FR, IT, all have an above-average amount of homework to do. Germany needs to treble its vaccination rate. On the whole, southern and eastern MS face a smaller vaccination-acceleration challenge.
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The needed jab rate is determined by the no. of vaccines delivered so far and the % of adults in the population. The differences between MS are not large, so that the needed rate does vary, but only between 0.47 and 0.56. Still, 🇩🇪needs to hit 0.53/day, 🇫🇷 only 0.49 for ex.
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This means that the finding for the "acceleration factor" is driven mostly by the recent vaccination rate. Country performance here can move around fairly sharply (even using 7-day averages), so country rankings of the needed acceleration could change fairly swiftly.
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The findings can be taken as upper bounds bc I have assumed that 2 shots are needed for full vaccination; the soon to be approved Janssen vaccine needs only 1. And the rate for the last 7 days in most cases slightly lags the current pace, which is rising in most countries.
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Sources: @EU_Eurostat (population) @OurWorldInData (vaccinations)

tl:dr Europe has its work cut out for it to hit its💉target. But as the supply constraint eases, it's do-able. Some MS have more to do than others

@SDullien @fsaraceno @Ole_Funke @OlafGersemann @LaszloAndorEU
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