Thread by @_hudsonc

One thing strikes me reading both this UN humanitarian assessment and the @mfaethiopia response to the US.

Abiy has painted himself into a corner he cant get out of--trapped between the need to deliver aid and defeat the TPLF. Something has to give.

reports.unocha.org/en/country/eth…

It seems from the latest @UNOCHA report that the biggest challenge is not quantity of aid, but limited access due to fighting. But because Abiy declared victory 2 months ago in his law and order operation, he is clearly not admitting that he is still struggling militarily. And..

Continues to need Eritrean and Amhara forces to stay in the fight. Admitting that would be a humiliation. Admitting that fighting is as intense as it is in many areas is as well. But its clear that withdrawing outside forces wont be possible in the near term. As such..

Perhaps the focus of international efforts should be on achieving a ceasefire--or even a humanitarian or covid pause in the fighting-- first as a condition for withdrawing troops. This might help address the pressing humanitarian issues and give space for dialogue.

However, it requires Abiy to come to the, perhaps humiliating, conclusion that he might actually have to talk to the TPLF in some way--something that has been off the table until now as it confers a degree of legitimacy he has tried to deny them. In addition,

I hear rumors that Abiy is perhaps open to some dialogue but is held captive by the ENDF and Amhara who want revenge and are out for blood. If true, a series of targeted sanctions on them and their Eritrean allies for recent battlefield abuses could give Abiy the space to talk.

More importantly, it requires some dedicated diplomacy with Abiy--not just a bunch of high level drop-ins with finger waving for the cameras--to help him find a face-saving way out of the mess and morass he is in in Tigray. Rumored appointment of a US Horn Envoy might help.