Would it change anyone's view of todays agreement if it were understood that the Taqadum coalition was financed by UAE? Or that UAE helped advise/implement the attack on Wad Madani or Hemedti's regional tour or his meeting with Hamdok and this agreement?🧵reuters.com/world/africa/s… The words in the agreement are tantalizing especially for a population that has endured so much in the last 8month. But making commitments and signing agreements has never been the problem in Sudan. The dustbin of Sudan's history is full of broken agreements, most recently Jeddah

State Department announces a willingness to use "3C" visa restrictions against those who would attempt to undermine the recent political deal in #Sudan. This is the functional equivalent of bringing a knife to gun fight. A few points of explanation: state.gov/expanded-visa-… 1. No official automatically gets a visa to come to the US, irrespective of their official status. We always have the choice to not give Hemedti, for example, a visa. So why do we need a visa ban list?

🧵1/Some thought on the new US-Africa strategy and its announcement, since we need to differentiate. First, I congratulate all who contributed to the strategy over many months of drafting. It was thoughtfully and exhaustively done by people close to and deeply committed to Africa

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1556962798378356741

2/But its most significant and game-changing aspect, the notion that African nations are "geo-strategic players and critical partners on the most pressing issues," will be demonstrated not by the Africanists who drafted it but by higher-ups who ultimately decide US policy.Despite

Rumors from Doha that a final agreement between Chadian military government and politico-military groups about to be finalized along the lines of this version from last week. If true, this document seems to lay out some very significant steps forward for civilian rule. Notably: ➡️ A universal ceasefire/pledges by all sides to refrain from future combat/retaliation
➡️Creation of hybrid (government, armed actors, civil society) committee to oversee a comprehensive DDR program following the national dialogue
➡️ Passage of amnesty for all former combatants

This feels like more theatrics from the AU, which from the start when Hemedti convinced Faki to demand a seat at the mediation table, has been subtly and not so subtly using its seat to rebalance talks to give added support to military-Islamist forces. This has imperiled the

https://twitter.com/SudanTribune_EN/status/1539514094864289792

credibility of the entire process. The fact that only the military and its supporters are truly lamenting the AU's withdrawal demonstrates this point.
No doubt there should be AU representation at the table, but what role exactly? Perhaps as part of a

https://twitter.com/GeneralDagllo/status/1539562064208855040

Today's sanctions announcement by the US on #Sudan's Central Reserve Police is, on its face, a welcome, albeit long overdue announcement. It targets clearly one, but by no means all, of those security entities responsible for the violent crackdowns and home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel… killings of protesters since the Oct coup. While it is better late than never, its also too smart by half. First, it uses an existing authority under Global Magnitsky to target human rights abusers that could have been deployed months ago. It didnt need to take this long.

.@USAID chief travels to #Sudan and #Ethiopia this week where she will celebrate the achievements in Sudan, their turn away from genocide and authoritarianism, and admonish Ethiopia for turning toward it. reuters.com/world/africa/u… It is oddly reminiscent of a trip she took (with the current @USAmbUN) to the Central African Republic in 2013 as that country was being torn apart by genocidal violence.
nytimes.com/2013/12/20/wor…

Cooler heads in Egypt and Sudan continue to prevail. But I would not be surprised if sometime soon a cyber attack on the GERD took it offline before power generation could begin. The world underestimated how regionally divisive the 2nd filling has been. aje.io/kqh3wt To be clear, Im not advocating any effort to attack/disable the GERD, but the quiet from Sudan and Egypt since the 2nd filling doesnt mean they are letting it go quietly. Im deeply concerned that Ethiopia's unilateral action will beget more unilateral action by the other side.

One thing strikes me reading both this UN humanitarian assessment and the @mfaethiopia response to the US.

Abiy has painted himself into a corner he cant get out of--trapped between the need to deliver aid and defeat the TPLF. Something has to give.

reports.unocha.org/en/country/eth… It seems from the latest @UNOCHA report that the biggest challenge is not quantity of aid, but limited access due to fighting. But because Abiy declared victory 2 months ago in his law and order operation, he is clearly not admitting that he is still struggling militarily. And..

Its becoming increasing clear to me that at a senior political level, Sudan's removal from the SST list is becoming bundled with the President's larger Middle East peace plan and securing normalized relations between as many Arab states and Israel as possible. While it is true that #Sudan is moving forward on the explicit requirements (settling terror claims) and there is no explicit quid pro quo that Sudan normalize with Israel to be removed, the way Pompeo's visit to the region is being framed is as part of broader regional peace.