1/ Because by judging from other countries (mine for example) that is completely true. Just took my kid to primary school, all parents packed together (with their 'masks on' of course). Who would have known? Right?
2/ But let's make it fun. Every thread is better with a poll. Do people use masks properly in your city? Keep distance, don't touch it, over the nose... you know the usual.
3/ That's why I wrote this small rant a few weeks ago. Because using PPE in the wrong way is worse than not use it at all.
4/ And that is obviously assuming that (you know) the evidence of them to work would support the recommendations. Haven't finished the second part, because of my inability to deal with how uninspiring the results of the first part are.
5/ I know many 'experts' that would use to visit Amazon and request a copy of this masterpiece. amazon.com/Users-Guides-M…
6/ I love how this section starts: "Science is often not objective. The choice of research questions, the methods
to collect and analyze data and the interpretation of results reflect the Weltanschauung, or worldview of the investigators".
7/ When best evidence for the evidence-based GRADE analysis of the @ECDC_EU says in its abstract: "Although the difference observed was not statistically significant, the 95% CIs are compatible with a 46% reduction to a *23% increase in infection*" we should be calling Houston.
8/ But you want to hear something funny (which shouldn't be BTW). The @ecdc_eu study does cite it, but don't even acknowledge it in their recommendation analysis. That is borderline... you know.
9/ ... yeah, you know that I was going to say, "quite an oversight". So the point of this, their researchers have their own worldview too, but if they contaminate their own study with it, there is no use in their recommendation. Then science itself gets discreditted.
10/ You know, in science the decent thing is to ask the authors privately what they meant with something. I just couldn't find a way to contact the authors (no emails there) because not publishing these tables strikes me as odd (to say the least).
11/ The reason why is because the justification for the recommendation is entirely based on that risk assessment, which I cannot do because the tables are not there. I know, some people like me like to look at supplementary material.
12/ If you are into the research business I will give you a tip. The supplementary material is often where the gems are, my process is I always go to the abstract, conclusions, and THEN the supplementary (if available). If that adds up, then I go to read the main body.
13/ This thread about wearing improperly masks has become Part 2 of the deep dive on the study. My verdict, I don't agree with @BallouxFrancois about the recommendation being balanced. It is so full of holes that the recommendation itself is worthless and unsubstantiated.
14/ So with this I conclude that: "Sorry, the evidence for mask mandates in Europe is just not there". If you want others to know about how I reached those conclusions don't forget to RT this and the other thread.
15/ You can agree or disagree with my conclusions, that's how science works. Hopefully, this showcase on how to evaluate a study (under GRADE methodology) is of use to you for a future encounter. Feel free to tag me on your own if you learned something from this exercise.

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More from @federicolois

23 Feb
1/ There is absolutely no discussion that if you have a disease that doubles its size every 3-4 days and 2% of those infected requires hospitalization you are going to have a quite difficult situation to deal with. Not even a newbie modeler would disagree with @neil_ferguson
2/ But as @gidmk told me once in one of our initial exchanges (and respectful disagreements): "Everyone comes into epidemiology for the uncertainty and stay for the nuance" (if I recall it correctly, corrections please). The entire response rest on those nuances, let's dissect.
3/ At least in my mind there is no doubt that the Ro of SARS-Cov-2 is very high (we estimated 3.3) and if we account for the UK variant we are probably 30% up from there. So, we can say we agree probably up to the decimals level.
Read 14 tweets
23 Feb
1/ When we wrote this paragraph back in October I wouldn't know how close to home it would hit. Back in October my mother-in-law (65+) fainted in the bathroom while having diarrhea. It was quite a scare as she got hit very hard.

Ref: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2/ Not long after my father-in-law (80+) was diagnosed with anorexia nervousa. Doctors presume that loneliness caused by the lockdown, plus the scare of the episode would have been more than enough to cause it.
3/ Back then I immediately told my wife that those were signs of COVID, being health personnel and working on the lab at the hospital knew very well the evidence. On her account, the evidence was definitely not anywhere near what they thought were signs of the disease.
Read 9 tweets
20 Feb
Let's play a game. I will ask a few things about SARS-Cov-2 and you respond in a poll. Let's see how many points do you get.

#1: Is there a non-human reservoir or vectors (or both)?
#2: Is the disease geographically restricted?
#3: Is there a 'sterilizing' vaccine or any other transmission-disrupting alternative?
Read 14 tweets
17 Feb
1/ By popular demand I was going to do a deep dive into the European CDC Face Mask recommendation study. Well, it may end but be a bit shallow. There is not much depth to be diving into. ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication…
2/ The study follows a usual form with clear inclusion and exclusion criteria (which is good). It uses the GRADE framework to ascertain the evidence and generate a recommendation. That is among the best we got in the evidence based land.
3/ The number of studies included is 'interesting'. With a n=118 we would expect to get a nice body of clear cut evidence to support the recommendation. Image
Read 17 tweets
11 Feb
1/ What does this mean for research? For example, while my twitter followed has increased absurdly since early last year because of my work on data analysis on SARS-Cov-2, I was mostly known for my work in performance analysis.
2/ What performance analysis teaches you is that you run experiments of the type 'If P then Q' every single day, several times a day.
For ex. "If I change this data structure then I will be able to obtain better performance by accessing memory contiguously"
3/ Now, when you enter into the realm of 'how the physical CPU is working' then becomes far more difficult. The reason behind that is that with that many moving parts noise is very difficult to separate from the signal.
Read 8 tweets
7 Feb
1/ Let's look at this paper: "Influenza Virus Aerosols in the Air and Their Infectiousness" from 2014 (we cannot claim this was unknown). We know now that we have a new kid on the block now, ready to challenge Influenza for supremacy in the transmissibility metric.
2/ So there were these guys that actually infected people with Influenza to measure how infectious it was. That is a 'challenge study', this is no 'model' this is actual humans. And they found, that with as much as 3000 copies you get it.
3/ Another study actually measured how many particles an adult would inhale in 1 hour given the concentrations found on a health center, a day-care center, and airplanes.
Read 19 tweets

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