Thread by @LiewChinTong

THREAD| PM @MuhyiddinYassin will find his Pagoh parliamentary seat competitive should it turn into a multi-cornered contest in the next GE. (1/8)

malaymail.com/news/malaysia/…

@MuhyiddinYassin Out of 65 percent voters who are Malays in Pagoh, Muhyiddin did not have half from this group while his remaining support came from non-Malay voters who make up 36 percent of the constituency’s electorate. (2/8)

@MuhyiddinYassin In GE14, Muhyiddin faced two challengers for Pagoh but garnered 23,558 (45.7%) votes out of 43,667 voter turnout (84.8%). He was up against Umno’s Ismail Mohamed who bagged 16,631 votes (32.3%) while PAS’ Ahmad Nawfal Mahfodz got 2,483 (4.8%) votes. (3/8)

@MuhyiddinYassin I think it’s a highly dangerous seat for him if it’s not a straight fight. With the three kingdoms translated into electoral competition that means there is a three-cornered fight. (4/8)

@MuhyiddinYassin The “three kingdoms” here refers to the three political forces post-Sheraton move, that I have described in a previous article - Muhyiddin and his friends; Umno and its friends; and PH and other Opposition parties. (5/8)

liewchintong.com/2021/01/06/mal…

@MuhyiddinYassin I don’t think Muhyiddin will be super popular in three months’ time or half a year’s time. It is very difficult for him to turn around within a short span of time, even until August. Even when he was as popular as in June 2020, his party wasn’t and it isn’t going to be. (6/8)

@MuhyiddinYassin As its relationship with UMNO continues to sour, this means Bersatu is now left with the support of PAS — the other member of the three-party pact Muafakat Nasional . This is not enough. (7/8)

@MuhyiddinYassin Muhyiddin may be limping on the shoulder of PAS but he cannot wholly rely on PAS either. Bersatu currently has 31 MPs in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat, but without the support of both Umno and PAS, it will not be able to sustain the government. (8/8)