Thread by @LiewChinTong

THREAD | Why I’m still an optimist after a year of Sheraton coup

Before I delve deeper into this, we must first answer the question: was the 2018 win a fluke or an outcome of our electoral structure? (1/16)

Of the 165 seats in the Peninsula, the grand opposition won 55 seats in 3 consecutive elections ('08,'13,'18). 10 more seats were won consecutively for 2 terms ('13,'18). If a general election is called today, these 65 seats would likely be secured by the grand opposition. (2/16)

UMNO won 46 seats in the Peninsula in the last election when it was at its lowest. It will probably win those 46 seats relatively comfortably, even if it has to battle Bersatu or PAS. (3/16)

The remaining 54 seats of the 165 seats in the Peninsula would be the battleground. Whichever coalition of parties crosses the line of 100 in the Peninsula, it will form government. Pakatan Harapan (PH) won 98 seats in the Peninsula on election night in 2018. (4/16)

Pakatan Harapan won the last election because it won the semi-urban Malay majority yet mixed ethnic seats, such as Pagoh, which has 64 percent Malay and the remaining are non-Malay voters. This structure hasn’t changed.
(5/16)

The structural support for the grand opposition to win 65 seats in the Peninsula is still intact. The challenge now is how to win the next 35 seats to reach 100 at least. (6/16)

While plotters of Sheraton coup espouse the benefit of a Malay-only government, the last year alone is a living proof that a Malay-only government doesn’t guarantee that would benefit the Malays, what more Malaysians.
(7/16)

The #duadarjat outcry is so loud among the Malays because they felt it particularly strong: those who rule in the name of the Malays are causing harm to the lives of ordinary Malays.(8/16)

I’m also hopeful of young Malaysians. Growing as digital natives, they do not take nonsense from politicians. Even if their parents tell them something, they would turn to Google to see what Wikipedia says. (9/16)

In terms of heroes, they’ll probably won’t look for a singular strongman saviour like Superman, but probably look up to a cohort of leadership in the style of Avengers, a team of collaborators. (10/16)

Comparatively, Muhyiddin's perceived popularity might stand if compared individually against other personalities but if his leadership is contrasted against a team, it’ll be a different story. (11/16)

The moment we compare Kak Wan with Rina Harun; Dr. Dzul with Adham Baba; Anthony Loke with Wee Ka Siong; Darell Leiking with Azmin Ali etc, Team Muhyiddin provokes anger among voters. (12/16)

This is the lesson that the grand opposition has to learn fast. It is no longer about a single individual. It is about a functioning leadership team that the voters are choosing. After all, Malaysia is a Westminster system, not a presidency. (13/16)

The Covid-19 crisis has taught the world new ways of measuring leadership. The public looks to competence and empathy in leadership. Each of these or the lack of them have grave implications on the ordinary people. (14/16)

Policy-making on the fly at press conferences by leaders, incompetent leadership, lack of empathy or arrogance or simply “dua darjat” practices, would be abhorred. (15/16)

Team Muhyiddin is living with the Stone Age conceptions of leadership. It is time for all his opponents to meet and match the new public expectations of leadership that is competent, empathetic and science or evidence-based. Hence I remain optimistic. (16/16)