Good protection for many (w/ 1 shot) is better than great protection for a few. 2000 people a day are dying because they can’t get a 1st #covid19 shot- not because they can’t get a 2nd...
Pivots on mask wearing and on school closures show advice can be well intended, and scientifically grounded, yet still need to be changed based on the reality on the ground. The risk for most of no protection at all >> than the risk of breakthrough variants at this point.
And as @Atul_Gawande has pointed out, simply affording states the okay to be somewhat flexible could unleash millions of doses sitting on shelves (out of fear of not having the golden 2nd dose for people, and getting in trouble). Push out all doses NOW, and lean into production!
Delaying a 2nd dose doesn’t have to be a foregone conclusion- it just has to on option, to unleash maximal 1st dose administration. If 2nd dose is delayed a bit, emerging data suggests the harm is minimal compared to the harm of someone else having no protection whatsoever.
And one more critical point about equity: Given that minority populations are already WAY behind in vaccinations, holding 2nd doses (for disproportionately non minority populations who got 1 dose already) vs ⬆️ available 1st doses for minority communities is ⬆️ disparities! 🤯
And my apologies for the mistake and for messing up the thread- but it was Dr Jha who most recently pointed out the harm of stockpiling due to “fear of missing 2nd dose” (though Dr Gawande has weighed in on this too):
Why should I get a vaccine for disease with a 99% “recovery rate” (ie according to many studies only 1% of those infected will die)? 🤷🏽♂️
It’s a fair question, and here’s a short 🧵 explaining why. 1/?
In science and medicine we look at both morbidity (the consequences of having a illness or condition) & mortality (the number/ chance of death due to said illness/ condition). The mortality of #covid19 is 1%, but the consequences of getting/ having it can be far greater.
2/?
Around 97-99% of people who get #covid19 will live. But even if you live, that doesn’t mean you won’t get sick as hell/ end up in the hospital/ have long term health issues.
It also doesn’t mean that a 1% death rate is acceptable (1% of US population = 3 million people).
3/?
Answer: Absolutely NOT! The vaccines help your body make one of the numerous proteins the virus has, so your body can produce virus fighting antibodies. But there’s no virus in the vaccine, so you can’t get Covid from it!
FAQ: Isn’t the J&J vaccine much less effective than the others?
Answer: the different vaccines were tested at different times, in different countries. But the J&J vaccine (as well as the other two) are almost 100% effective at preventing severe disease/ hospitalization/ death!
I believe in following the science, but I also believe we must always discuss, and when data and circumstances dictate, have the fortitude to change recommendations. And based on what I’ve seen, I think we need to delay the second dose of #COVID19 vax.
The bird in hand we have offers the possibility of 1.5-2x number of available vaccine doses right now. The “two in the bush” is a hedge against the possibility that people won’t come back for a delayed second dose, or won’t achieve/ maintain high enough levels of immunity. 2/?
Studies are increasingly showing one dose of mRNA vax is highly effective, and provides protection for much longer than 1st thought. I just don’t think the fear that people won’t come back, or that immunity will wane in 3 months, outweighs people infected/ dying right now... 3/?
@margbrennan@FaceTheNation@CDCgov@KFF@ASTHO@AmerMedicalAssn@CVSHealth@Morehouse Thanks for that- minorities were disproportionately dying long before #COVID19 & will continue to afterwards- but we have an opportunity to change trajectories for the better. We must first understand not everyone has the same opportunities for health- equality isn't equity. 1/
@margbrennan@FaceTheNation@CDCgov@KFF@ASTHO@AmerMedicalAssn@CVSHealth@Morehouse We talk about "social determinants of health." Thinks like transportation, and housing, and a good paying job. All of these things are just as important (studies actually show them to be more important in many cases) as access to doctors or medicines. 2/?
@margbrennan@FaceTheNation@CDCgov@KFF@ASTHO@AmerMedicalAssn Public health experts always knew this was going to be the hardest vaccine distribution in history. And we need to understand that while federal planning and funding/ support are critical, most of the work happens at the state and local level. 1/?
@margbrennan@FaceTheNation@CDCgov@KFF@ASTHO@AmerMedicalAssn I used to run a State Health Department. You absolutely cannot bypass the state or you will have chaos. But you also have to recognize that not all states have the local partnerships in place to reach the most vulnerable communities. 2/?
@margbrennan@FaceTheNation@CDCgov@KFF@ASTHO@AmerMedicalAssn One of the things we need to do is learn from places like West Virginia. They are blowing away much larger, better funded, & healthier states. So sometimes it IS about leadership, and we need to share best practices and put some friendly pressure on poor performers w the data. 3/
@margbrennan@FaceTheNation@CDCgov Great question. Life expectancy decreased 2.7 years for the non-Hispanic black population (74.7 to 72.0). It decreased by 1.9 years for the Hispanic population (81.8 to 79.9) and by 0.8 year for the non-Hispanic white population. 1/?
@margbrennan@FaceTheNation@CDCgov The first thing we need to do is collect, analyze, & share the data. @CDCgov is now doing this (I've been calling for it for a while so I'm glad to see it). @KFF and others are also putting demographic data out there. Once we have the data, we can identify gaps and targets. 2/