Sunak now faces pressure to lower tax on the Red Wall northern seats because they say they are unfairly treated on tax, paying too much and on spending, not getting the transport spending of London
Eg Miriam Cates, new Tory MP for Penistone and Stocksbridge
2/
There are now loads of funds for levelling up
- the towns fund
- the levelling up fund
- the shared prosperity fund
- changes to the green book for investment
You’d have thought that London and the South East had been partying on the backs of northern tax revenue
3/
But no, it’s not true - never has been and the subsidies from London and the South East to the rest of the U.K. have grown substantially since 2010
4/
The pandemic has seen levelling down, with the capital having the disproportionately large increases in UC and furlough, complicating the levelling up story further
5/
And median living standards (net incomes after housing costs) are below the UK average in London too.
So there is a disconnect between GDP figures and living standards.
The capital’s streets aren’t paved with gold 6/
So, if Londoners, on average, aren’t rich and heavily subsidise the rest of the country, what is going on?
Answer: There are many more working age people in London, and a big chunk of the rich.
And the UK state redistributes from these groups to others
Also wise words from Tony Travers on the futility of looking at regional spending levels looking for unfairness
8/
It does mean looking to create more dynamism, more graduates, more easy career paths outside the South East for people. That probably means big cities action, not a focus on seeking future prosperity (pretax) from small towns
There is a vaccine effect now in the UK, but it is dwarfed by the lockdown effect
- With case numbers still high, suggests a need for caution
- but a delicate balance on opening up because the virus and lockowns hurt
The US is undertaking the greatest economic experiment since the Reagan reforms in the early 80s
Will this be Biden’s moment, or will it resemble Mitterrand’s France in 1981? 1/ on.ft.com/3qpW50u
The US economy did well last year, not by controlling Covid, but by borrowing and spending. A lot.
Now it plans to go further, using more borrowing and spending to put its economy on a better path than pre pandemic
2/
The assumption is it can do better. Quickly. Complete reversal from post financial crisis where everyone accepted lasting economic scars and painful fiscal consolidation
There seem to me to be three plausible explanations 1) Be patient 2) English over 80 cases were affected by other forces - eg outbreaks again in care homes 3) The one-shot vaccine isn't as effective as two for older groups
UPDATE: After today's @ONS data, the latest estimate for the number of excess deaths in the UK linked to coronavirus is
115,300
Note that 50,000 of these have happened in the second wave, so don't let anyone say death numbers are normal
1/
@ONS The one thing that is true is that in the second wave, excess deaths (compared with the 5 year average) are lower than the count of deaths wihtin 28 days of a positive test and coronavirus mentions on death certificates
Excess was higher in first wave because testing for the virus was so poor.
It's lower in the second wave because there have been fewer non-Covid-19 deaths than usual - likely to be due to social distancing limiting other respiratory illnesses
UPDATE: Following today's @ONS data for England and Wales, my estimate of the number of UK excess deaths linked to coronavirus since mid March 2020 has surpassed a new grim milestone of
106,300
Of these, 94,745 have been recorded officially, the remainder are estimates
1/
@ONS There is now strong evidence that the number of excess deaths accelerated as the second wave became more intense towards the end of December - estimates of the daily totals rise significantly
But are still well below the spring peak
2/
@ONS It no longer appears true that excess deaths in the second wave are lower than the daily death totals
Why? My hunch is that as waves intensify, hospitals find it harder to save those who would have survived when pressures lighter