UPDATE: Following today's @ONS data for England and Wales, my estimate of the number of UK excess deaths linked to coronavirus since mid March 2020 has surpassed a new grim milestone of
106,300
Of these, 94,745 have been recorded officially, the remainder are estimates
1/
106,300
Of these, 94,745 have been recorded officially, the remainder are estimates
1/
@ONS There is now strong evidence that the number of excess deaths accelerated as the second wave became more intense towards the end of December - estimates of the daily totals rise significantly
But are still well below the spring peak
2/
But are still well below the spring peak
2/
@ONS It no longer appears true that excess deaths in the second wave are lower than the daily death totals
Why? My hunch is that as waves intensify, hospitals find it harder to save those who would have survived when pressures lighter
3/
Why? My hunch is that as waves intensify, hospitals find it harder to save those who would have survived when pressures lighter
3/
@ONS What are my estimates?
1) 95,745 excess deaths so far in official figures for UK's 4 nations
2) We know this data are for registrations up to Jan 8 (likely to be deaths up to roughly Jan 4)
3) There is a relationship (no longer stable) between hospital deaths and the excess
4/
1) 95,745 excess deaths so far in official figures for UK's 4 nations
2) We know this data are for registrations up to Jan 8 (likely to be deaths up to roughly Jan 4)
3) There is a relationship (no longer stable) between hospital deaths and the excess
4/
@ONS Could my estimates be wrong? Of course
But I am transparent about putting in previous forecasts so everyone can see (the green dots).
Almost all of my forecast errors are underestimates. This was by design because I did not want to be alarmist
5/
But I am transparent about putting in previous forecasts so everyone can see (the green dots).
Almost all of my forecast errors are underestimates. This was by design because I did not want to be alarmist
5/
@ONS The recent error was in not accepting the signs of acceleration of excess deaths were signal rather than noise. This is now corrected. Hence the rather large increase in the last update
6/
6/
@ONS Could the total today be less than 100,000?
Highly unlikely. That would require a relationship between excess deaths and the daily total that has not been seen at any point during the pandemic.
It would create this rather odd graph
7/
Highly unlikely. That would require a relationship between excess deaths and the daily total that has not been seen at any point during the pandemic.
It would create this rather odd graph
7/
@ONS If the relationship between the daily death total and the excess continues on recent trends (probably unlikely because there is likely to have been some New Year related delay in registrtions), the total could be as high as 110,000
8/
8/
@ONS So...
We should be careful saying the second wave was "nothing like the first", suggesting it was better
telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/1…
In two months there were roughly 65,000 excess deaths in wave 1
Wave 2, with 41,000 excess deaths over roughly 3 months is still continuing
ENDS
We should be careful saying the second wave was "nothing like the first", suggesting it was better
telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/1…
In two months there were roughly 65,000 excess deaths in wave 1
Wave 2, with 41,000 excess deaths over roughly 3 months is still continuing
ENDS
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